Table_2_Relationships Between Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns and Phytoplankton Productivity in the Neva Estuary (Northeastern Baltic Sea).XLSX

Teleconnection patterns can be an important tool for investigating the impact of climate change on biological communities. The aim of the study was, using 2003–2020 data on chlorophyll a concentrations (CHL) and plankton primary production (PP) in midsummer, to determine which of the teleconnection patterns have most pronounced effects on phytoplankton productivity in the estuary located on the border between western and eastern Europe. CHL correlated significantly with the winter values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAOw) and Scandinavia (SCANDw) indices, as well as with the values of the annual Polar/Eurasian (POLy) and annual Arctic Oscillation (AOy) indices. PP was significantly correlated with the values of POLy. East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern showed no significant correlation with both phytoplankton indicators. Stepwise multiple linear regressions were performed to determine the most influential indices affecting CHL and PP in the Neva Estuary. POLy, SCANDw, and NAOw appeared to be the main predictors in CHL multiple regression model, while the values of POLy and the July NAO and SCAND values were the main predictors in the PP model. According to our research, the productivity of phytoplankton in the Neva Estuary, located in the most northeastern part of the Baltic Sea, showed a significant relationship with the POL, which determines weather conditions in the northeastern regions of Eurasia. Possible mechanisms of the influence of these teleconnection patterns on phytoplankton productivity are discussed. Using the obtained multi-regression equations and the values of climatic indices, we calculated the values of CHL and PP for 1951–2002 and compared them with the results of field observations. The calculated and measured values of CHL and PP showed a significant increase in phytoplankton productivity in the Neva Estuary in the second half of the 2010s compared to earlier periods. In some years of the 1950s, 1980s, and late 1990s, CHL could also be above average and the low phytoplankton productivity should have been observed in the 1960s–1970s. This indicates a significant contribution of current climate change to fluctuation in phytoplankton productivity observed in recent decades, which should be taken into account when developing measures to protect aquatic ecosystems from eutrophication.

遥相关型（teleconnection patterns）是探究气候变化对生物群落影响的重要工具。本研究利用2003—2020年仲夏时节的叶绿素a浓度（chlorophyll a, CHL）与浮游生物初级生产量（plankton primary production, PP）数据，旨在明确西欧与东欧交界河口区域内，哪些遥相关型对浮游植物生产力的影响最为显著。结果显示，叶绿素a浓度与北大西洋涛动冬季指数（NAOw）、斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型冬季指数（SCANDw）均呈显著相关，同时也与极地-欧亚遥相关型年平均指数（POLy）、北极涛动年平均指数（AOy）显著相关；浮游生物初级生产量则仅与POLy指数呈显著相关。东大西洋-俄罗斯西部遥相关型与这两项浮游生物指标均无显著相关性。研究采用逐步多元线性回归方法，明确涅瓦河口区域内影响叶绿素a浓度与浮游生物初级生产量的关键指数：叶绿素a浓度的多元回归模型中，POLy、SCANDw与NAOw为核心预测因子；而浮游生物初级生产量的回归模型则以POLy指数、7月北大西洋涛动指数及7月斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型指数为核心预测因子。本研究发现，地处波罗的海最东北部的涅瓦河口，其浮游植物生产力与调控欧亚大陆东北部天气状况的POLy指数呈显著相关。本文还探讨了上述遥相关型影响浮游植物生产力的潜在机制。研究人员利用所得的多元回归方程与气候指数数据，反演计算了1951—2002年的叶绿素a浓度与浮游生物初级生产量，并将其与野外实地观测结果进行对比。计算值与实测值均显示，与早期时段相比，2010年代后半叶涅瓦河口的浮游植物生产力出现显著提升。在1950年代、1980年代及1990年代末的部分年份，叶绿素a浓度也高于平均水平；而1960年代至1970年代则应出现浮游植物生产力偏低的情况。这表明，近几十年来观测到的涅瓦河口浮游植物生产力波动，在很大程度上受当前气候变化的影响，这一结论在制定水生生态系统富营养化防治措施时需予以考量。