Replication File for “The Effect of Household Debt on Safety-Net Participation”

We examine how participation in the Food Stamp Program (FSP)/ Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program responds to changes in state level household debt using administrative, quarterly data from 1999-2019. Using dynamic panel models, we find no consistently significant relationship. We argue this fails to capture the systemic structure of the safety-net and household finances. Using a panel vector autoregression to systemically model this relationship shows TANF is generally unresponsive to a one standard deviation shock to debt innovations, while FSP/SNAP participation responds significantly, substantially, and persistently, rising 10.99% cumulatively over 10 quarters.

我们基于1999-2019年的行政季度面板数据，考察了食品券计划（Food Stamp Program, FSP）与补充营养援助计划（Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, SNAP）、贫困家庭临时援助计划（Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, TANF）的参与率如何随州级家庭债务的变化发生响应。通过动态面板模型开展分析后，我们未发现二者间存在持续显著的关联。我们指出，该结果未能捕捉到社会保障安全网与家庭财务的系统性结构特征。随后采用面板向量自回归模型对该关系进行系统性建模，结果显示：贫困家庭临时援助计划的参与率通常不会对债务新息的一个标准差冲击产生显著响应；而食品券计划/补充营养援助计划的参与率则会出现显著、大幅且持续的响应，在10个季度内累计增幅达10.99%。