Data from: Phenological responses of 215 moth species to interannual climate variation in the Pacific Northwest from 1895 through 2013

Climate change has caused shifts in the phenology and distributions of many species but comparing responses across species is challenged by inconsistencies in the methodology and taxonomic and temporal scope of individual studies. Natural history collections offer a rich source of data for examining phenological shifts for a large number of species. We paired specimen records from Pacific Northwest insect collections to climate data to analyze the responses of 215 moth species to interannual climate variation over a period of 119 years (1895–2013) during which average annual temperatures have increased in the region. We quantified the effects of late winter/early spring temperatures, averaged annually across the region, on dates of occurrence of adults, taking into account the effects of elevation, latitude, and longitude. We assessed whether species-specific phenological responses varied with adult flight season and larval diet breadth. Collection dates were significantly earlier in warmer years for 36.3% of moth species, and later for 3.7%. Species exhibited an average phenological advance of 1.9 days/°C, but species-specific shifts ranged from an advance of 10.3 days/°C to a delay of 10.6 days/°C. More spring-flying species shifted their phenology than summer- or fall-flying species. These responses did not vary among groups defined by larval diet breadth. The highly variable phenological responses to climate change in Pacific Northwest moths agree with other studies on Lepidoptera and suggest that it will remain difficult to accurately forecast which species and ecological interactions are most likely to be affected by climate change. Our results also underscore the value of natural history collections as windows into long-term ecological trends.

气候变化已导致众多物种的物候（phenology）与分布格局发生改变，但由于各项研究在方法学、分类学范畴及时间尺度上存在不一致性，跨物种的气候响应对比工作面临诸多挑战。自然历史标本馆藏为探究大量物种的物候变化提供了丰富的数据资源。我们将北美太平洋西北岸（Pacific Northwest）的昆虫标本馆藏记录与气候数据进行匹配，分析了该区域119年间（1895年至2013年）215种蛾类对年际气候波动的响应——在此期间，该区域年均气温呈显著上升趋势。我们量化了区域年均晚冬/早春气温对成虫出现日期的影响，并纳入海拔、纬度与经度的效应作为协变量。同时评估了物种特异性物候响应是否随成虫飞行季以及幼虫食性宽度发生差异。研究结果显示，36.3%的蛾类物种在暖年的采集日期显著提前，3.7%的物种则显著延后。所有物种的平均物候提前速率为1.9天/℃，但物种特异性的物候变化跨度极大，从提前10.3天/℃到延后10.6天/℃不等。春季羽化飞行的蛾类中，发生物候偏移的物种比例高于夏季或秋季羽化飞行的物种。但上述物候响应并未因幼虫食性宽度的不同而出现组间差异。北美太平洋西北岸蛾类对气候变化表现出的高度异质性物候响应，与其他鳞翅目（Lepidoptera）相关研究结果一致，这表明精准预测哪些物种及生态相互作用最易受气候变化影响仍是一项长期难题。本研究结果同时凸显了自然历史标本馆藏作为长期生态趋势观测窗口的重要价值。