Is Southeast Asia a Substitute for Hainan? A Panel Data Analysis of Hainan’s Inbound Tourism Demand

This study investigates the determinants of inbound tourism demand to Hainan from 22 source regions over the period 2008 to 2023. Employing panel data analysis across seven regional groupings, the results reveal that Thailand serves as a substitute destination, whereas Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam function as complementary destinations for most international tourists. Relative price exerts a consistently positive effect on tourism demand across all models. The adverse impact of the Novel Coronavirus Epidemic (COVID-19) is also found to be statistically significant in every model. Income positively influences tourism demand in most regions, with the exception of ASEAN countries, where tourism to Hainan appears to exhibit characteristics of an inferior good. Overall, the findings underscore that the responsiveness of tourism demand to price-related factors vary considerably across regions, offering important implications for destination marketing and policy design.

本研究探究了2008年至2023年间，来自22个客源地的海南入境旅游需求的影响因素。本研究采用七个区域分组的面板数据分析（panel data analysis）方法，结果显示：对于多数国际游客而言，泰国属于替代型目的地，而马来西亚、新加坡与越南则为互补型目的地；相对价格对所有模型中的旅游需求均产生持续的正向影响；新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19，Novel Coronavirus Epidemic）的负面影响在所有模型中均具有统计学显著性；收入水平对多数地区的旅游需求具有正向推动作用，但东盟（ASEAN）国家除外——在此类国家中，前往海南的旅游需求呈现劣等品（inferior good）的特征。总体而言，研究结果表明，不同地区的旅游需求对价格相关因素的响应程度存在显著差异，这为目的地营销与政策设计提供了重要的实践参考。