Effects of match situational variables on possession: The case of England Premier League season 2015/16

ABSTRACT Aim The main aim of this study was to identify the effects of match location, quality of opponents and match status on possession during the 2015/16 Season of England Premier League. Methods Three hundred and eighty matches played by 20 teams were analysed. For each match, two values were recorded, resulting in 760 observations. Results Teams who played at home (51.77 ± 10.22%) presented higher possession values (EF=moderate) than those who played away (48.21 ± 10.30%). Quality of opponents also had a significant difference, as possession was higher (EF=large) when teams played against weak (52.30 ± 9.77%) than strong opponents (46.48 ± 10.38%). The multivariate analysis revealed no interaction between situational variables and possession (p = 0.76). Despite the teams classified as “best-ranking” (1st to 8th position: 50.60 ± 10.35%) presented greater possession (EF=moderate) than “worst-ranking” (9st to 20th position: 47.59 ± 9.74%), no significant differences were found in the comparisons of match status (winner [50.34 ± 10.48%] x drawer [49.95 ± 10.25%] x loser [49.68 ± 10.48%]). Conclusion General interpretations should be viewed with caution, since this possession can represent an indicator of success for a team but not for others.

摘要 研究目的：本研究旨在探究2015/16赛季英格兰足球超级联赛（England Premier League）中，比赛场地、对手实力以及比赛赛果对球队控球率（possession）的影响。研究方法：本研究共分析20支球队参与的380场赛事，每场赛事记录两项指标，最终获得760组有效观测样本。研究结果：主场作战球队的控球率为51.77±10.22%，显著高于客场作战球队的48.21±10.30%，效应量为中等（EF=moderate）。对手实力同样存在显著差异：球队对阵弱旅时的控球率达52.30±9.77%，显著高于对阵强队时的46.48±10.38%，效应量为大（EF=large）。多元分析显示，情境变量与控球率之间未存在交互效应（p=0.76）。尽管排名靠前的球队（第1至8位：50.60±10.35%）的控球率高于排名靠后的球队（第9至20位：47.59±9.74%），效应量为中等，但在不同比赛赛果分组（获胜方[50.34±10.48%]、平局方[49.95±10.25%]与失利方[49.68±10.48%]）的对比中，未发现显著差异。研究结论：由于控球率可作为部分球队的成功表征，但并非适用于所有球队，因此对本研究结果的一般性解读需保持谨慎。