Data_Sheet_1_Including Host Availability and Climate Change Impacts on the Global Risk Area of Carpomya pardalina (Diptera: Tephritidae).docx

Fruit flies are a well-known invasive species, and climate-based risk modeling is used to inform risk analysis of these pests. However, such research tends to focus on already well-known invasive species. This paper illustrates that appropriate risk modeling can also provide valuable insights for flies which are not yet “on the radar.” Carpomya pardalina is a locally important cucurbit-infesting fruit fly of western and central Asia, but it may present a risk to other temperate countries where melons are grown. MaxEnt models were used to map the risk area for this species under historical and future climate conditions averaged from three global climate models under two shared socio-economic pathways in 2030 and 2070 from higher climate sensitivity models based on the upcoming 2021 IPCC sixth assessment report. The results showed that a total of 47.64% of the world’s land mass is climatically suitable for the fly; it could establish widely around the globe both under current and future climates with host availability. Our MaxEnt modeling highlights particularly that Western China, Russia, and other European countries should pay attention to this currently lesser-known melon fly and the melons exported from the present countries. The current and expanding melon trade could offer direct invasion pathways to those regions. While this study offers specific risk information on C. pardalina, it also illustrates the value of applying climate-based distribution modeling to species with limited geographic distributions.

果蝇是一类广为人知的入侵物种，基于气候的风险建模常被用于为该类害虫的风险分析提供支撑。然而此类研究往往聚焦于已被广泛认知的入侵物种。本文证明，适配的风险模型同样能为尚未进入科研监测视野的果蝇类群提供极具价值的研究洞见。桃斑实蝇（Carpomya pardalina）是中亚西部与中部地区一种具有本地重要性的葫芦科为害实蝇，但其也可能对其他种植甜瓜的温带国家构成入侵风险。本研究采用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型，结合3个全球气候模式的平均气候数据，基于即将发布的2021年IPCC第六次评估报告中的高气候敏感性模型，选取两种共享社会经济路径，分别模拟2030年与2070年的历史及未来气候情景下该物种的适生分布区。结果显示，全球总计47.64%的陆地面积具备该实蝇生存的气候适宜性；在当前及未来气候情景下，只要存在适宜寄主植物，该物种即可在全球范围内广泛定殖。本研究的最大熵模型特别指出，中国西部、俄罗斯及其他欧洲国家需警惕这一当前关注度较低的甜瓜实蝇，以及来自其现有分布国的甜瓜出口商品。当前持续扩张的甜瓜贸易，可为上述地区提供直接的入侵传播路径。本研究不仅为桃斑实蝇提供了针对性的风险评估信息，同时也彰显了将基于气候的分布模型应用于地理分布范围有限物种的研究价值。