Thirty‐Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid‐Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin‐scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

美国东北大陆架（U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf）正经历快速变暖，其对海洋生态系统或产生深远影响。尽管卫星观测已记录下表层海洋多尺度的时空变异性，但当前学界对底栖环境变化的现状、趋势及驱动因素的认知仍较为有限。本研究针对新英格兰陆架与上层斜坡区域的稀疏底温数据，采用融合原位观测与遥感数据的季节动态区域定制多元线性回归模型开展插值分析。该统计模型可解释近90%的原始数据变异性，由此生成了1982—2014年跨度逾30年的同步时间序列数据集。研究全域（含缅因湾（Gulf of Maine））的底栖温度均呈上升态势。底栖增温速率介于每十年0.1至0.4℃之间，其中浅海近岸区域与乔治滩（Georges Bank）的增温速率最快，乔治滩的增温速率甚至超过了表层海洋。多数区域冬季的底栖增温速率可达其余时段的1.6倍，这对疾病暴发风险及越冬物种的能量代谢均具有重要生态学意义。底栖增温的驱动因素在全域存在空间异质性：在新英格兰南部及中大西洋浅陆架区域，底温增温与海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature, SST）的变化紧密耦合；而缅因湾、大陆架及乔治滩的温度变化，则同时受区域尺度与盆尺度海洋环流改变的调控。本研究结果既凸显了现有海洋观测的数据缺口，也证实了基于遥感变量开展底栖环境预测的当前可行性，同时指出亟需进一步厘清气候如何影响季节特异性的生态过程。