Replication data for: Proposition 13: An Equilibrium Analysis

There are many federal, state, and local laws that distort housing decisions and prices. However, it is often difficult to tease out the quantitative impact of such policies. In this paper, we examine the implications of one of the most significant tax changes initiated by voters in the United States on house prices, housing turnover, and household welfare. In 1978 California passed Proposition 13, which lowered property tax rates and restricted future property tax increases. We find that the introduction of Proposition 13 leads to a 15 percent increase in house prices and a 3.3 percent decrease in the moving rates. The elimination of Proposition 13, however, leads to modest changes in house prices and mobility but sizable welfare gains.

诸多联邦、州级与地方性法律法规会扭曲住房决策与住房价格，但学界往往难以厘清此类政策的量化影响。本研究聚焦美国选民推动通过的一项极具影响力的税收改革，探讨其对住房价格、住房流转率以及家庭福利的影响。1978年，加利福尼亚州通过了第13号提案（Proposition 13），该提案下调了财产税率，并限制了未来财产税的上调幅度。研究发现，第13号提案的实施使得住房价格上涨15%，住房迁移率下降3.3%。但若废除第13号提案，则仅会引发住房价格与流动性的小幅变动，却能带来可观的福利提升。