High-Resolution Lead–Lag Relations Between Barents Sea Temperatures, the AMOC and the AMO During 1971–2018

The direction of heat transport from the atmosphere to the Barents Sea, and between the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic is important for understanding the interplay between Greenland ice melting and anthropogenic forcing. Here, we show how heat has been transported between water bodies by using a high-resolution lead-lag technique that identifies leading relations between cyclic temperature series. The results demonstrate that near-surface ocean temperature (0–30 m) in the Barents Sea led the temperature changes in its intermediate waters (100–200 m) during the period 1971 to 2018 inferring that heat transport is from the atmosphere to the intermediate waters. The Barents Sea’s temperatures lagged the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) from 1971 to 2000. The AMOC was leading the Barents Sea near-bottom temperatures in the West (the Bear Island Through) during 1980–2018 but was both leading and lagging in the Barents Sea Northeast.

大气向巴伦支海（Barents Sea）的热量输送，以及巴伦支海与北大西洋（North Atlantic）之间的热量交换，是理解格陵兰冰盖消融与人为强迫之间相互作用的关键科学问题。本研究采用可识别周期性温度序列间超前-滞后关系的高分辨率超前滞后分析技术，揭示了不同水体间的热量输送过程。研究结果表明，1971年至2018年间，巴伦支海近表层海洋温度（0–30米）超前于其中层水体（100–200米）的温度变化，由此推断热量由大气向中层水体输送。1971年至2000年间，巴伦支海的温度变化滞后于大西洋经向翻转环流（Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, AMOC）与大西洋多年代际振荡（Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, AMO）。1980年至2018年间，大西洋经向翻转环流超前于巴伦支海西侧（熊岛海峡（Bear Island Through））的近底层海洋温度，但在巴伦支海东北部区域，其与巴伦支海温度变化则同时存在超前与滞后关系。