2010-2050黑河流域水、农业、生态系统脆弱性预测数据集

采用供需平衡的分析方法，分别计算流域总体及各县区水资源供给量及需求量的基础上，评估流域水资源系统脆弱性。采用IPAT等式设置未来水资源需求情景，即通过设定未来的人口增长率、经济增长速度、单位GDP耗水量等变量来建立需水情景。以2005年为基准年，预测未来2010-2050年的各县市水资源需求情景。人口规模、经济规模采用配套预测数据。应用瑞典水文气象研究所HBV概念性水文模型的基本结构，设计了在气候变化下流域变化趋势的模型，以冰川融化情景为模型的输入，构建气候变化下出山径流情景。依据流域水资源配置的国家地方规定设置配水方案，综合计算水资源供给量。综合供需情况，以缺水率为指标评价水资源系统脆弱性。通过计算流域主要县市的（小麦生产）土地压力指数，分析了流域气候变化、冰川融化及人口增长情景下土地资源的供需平衡，评价了农业系统脆弱性。分别运用迈阿密公式及HANPP模型计算了未来情景下，流域各主要县市净初级生物生产量及初级生物量的人类占用，以供需平衡角度评估生态系统脆弱性。

Using a supply-demand balance analysis approach, the vulnerability of the watershed water resource system is evaluated based on separate calculations of water resource supply and demand for both the entire watershed and each county/district. Future water resource demand scenarios are established using the IPAT equation, which involves setting variables such as future population growth rate, economic growth rate, and water consumption per unit GDP to construct demand scenarios. Taking2005 as the base year, water resource demand scenarios for each county/city from2010 to2050 are predicted, with population size and economic scale derived from supporting forecast data. Using the basic structure of the HBV conceptual hydrological model developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, a model for watershed change trends under climate change is designed; glacier melting scenarios are used as input to construct mountainous runoff scenarios under climate change. Water allocation schemes are set in accordance with national and local regulations on watershed water resource allocation, and total water resource supply is calculated comprehensively. Integrating supply and demand conditions, the vulnerability of the water resource system is evaluated using the water shortage rate as an indicator. By calculating the land pressure index (for wheat production) of major counties/cities in the watershed, the supply-demand balance of land resources under scenarios of climate change, glacier melting, and population growth is analyzed, and the vulnerability of the agricultural system is evaluated. The Miami Formula and HANPP model are used respectively to calculate net primary production (NPP) and human appropriation of primary biomass in major counties/cities of the watershed under future scenarios, and the vulnerability of the ecosystem is evaluated from the perspective of supply-demand balance.