DataSheet3_Quantitative Policy Analysis for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production Technologies.PDF

This paper quantifies the impact of different policy options on the economic viability of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production technologies. The pathways considered include isobutanol to jet from corn grain, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) from inedible fats and oils, HEFA from palm fatty acid distillate, synthesized iso-paraffins from sugarcane, Fischer-Tropsch (FT) gasification and synthesis from municipal solid waste, and micro FT from wood residues. The policies considered include feedstock subsidies, capital grants, output based incentives, and two policies intended to reduce project risk. Stochastic techno-economic analysis models are used to quantify the policies’ impact on project net present value and minimum selling price of the middle distillate fuel products. None of the technology pathways studied are found to be financially viable without policy aid. The median total policy costs required for economic viability range from 35 to 337 million USD per production facility, or 0.07–0.71 USD/liter. Our results indicate that the cumulative impact of multiple policies, similar in magnitude to analogous real-world fuel policies, could result in economically viable SAF production.

本研究量化了不同政策选项对可持续航空燃料（Sustainable Aviation Fuel, SAF）生产技术经济可行性的影响。本次研究考量的技术路径包括：以谷物为原料通过异丁醇制备航油路线、以不可食用油脂为原料的加氢处理酯类与脂肪酸（Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids, HEFA）路线、以棕榈脂肪酸馏分油为原料的HEFA路线、以甘蔗为原料合成异构烷烃路线、基于城市固体废物的费托（Fischer-Tropsch, FT）气化合成路线，以及以木材残余物为原料的微型费托路线。本次研究涉及的政策工具包括原料补贴、资本资助、基于产出的激励政策，以及两项旨在降低项目风险的政策。本研究采用随机技术经济分析模型，量化政策对项目净现值以及中间馏分油产品最低售价的影响。研究结果显示，若无政策扶持，本次考察的所有技术路径均不具备经济可行性。实现经济可行性所需的政策总成本中位数介于3500万至3.37亿美元/座生产设施，或0.07至0.71美元/升。本研究结果表明，多项政策的叠加效应——其强度与现实中同类燃料政策相当——可推动可持续航空燃料生产实现经济可行性。