Data and Code for Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime

Exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the timing of cancer diagnoses, we establish that health shocks elicit a large and persistent increase in the probability of committing a crime. This effect materializes in a substantial rise in both first crimes and re-offenses. We uncover evidence for two mechanisms. First, an economic motive leads individuals to compensate the loss of legal revenues with illegal earnings. Second, cancer patients face lower expected cost of punishment through a lower survival probability. Welfare programs that alleviate the economic repercussions of health shocks are effective at mitigating the ensuing negative externality on society.

本研究利用癌症确诊时间的准外生变异，证实健康冲击会显著且持续提升个体的犯罪概率。该效应体现为初犯与再犯率的显著升高。我们揭示了两类作用机制的相关证据：其一，经济动因驱使个体通过非法所得弥补合法收入的损失；其二，癌症患者生存概率更低，因此面临的预期惩罚成本更低。能够缓解健康冲击经济后果的福利项目，可有效减轻由此引发的社会负外部性。