BigBang_1971_2010

This study examines the causal impact of Britain's 1986 'Big Bang' financial deregulation on living standards inequality in the United Kingdom. Using the synthetic control method, the study constructs a counterfactual UK from a donor pool of 14 high-income peer countries over the period 1971–2000. The primary outcome variable is the Gini coefficient of consumption distributions. Predictor variables cover four domains: economic indicators (GDP growth, GDP per capita, trade openness, stock market capitalisation, government expenditure, inflation, unemployment); financial openness and regulation (Chinn-Ito index, Quinn capital and current account indices, income and capital gains taxation); political institutions (executive party orientation, electoral system, legal origin); and education and labour market conditions (employment protection strictness, years of schooling). Data are drawn from the World Bank World Development Indicators, the Global Financial Development Database, the Database of Political Institutions, the OECD Indicators of Employment Protection, and the Chinn-Ito and Quinn indices. Supplementary analyses draw on net personal wealth by percentile from the World Inequality Database and regional disposable income and GDP growth data from the Office for National Statistics, covering UK regions over the periods 1971–1985 and 1986–2000.

本研究考察了英国1986年“大爆炸”(Big Bang)金融放松管制对英国国内生活水平不平等的因果影响。本研究采用合成控制法(Synthetic Control Method)，基于1971—2000年间14个高收入同伴国家组成的捐赠池，构建了反事实英国。主要因变量为消费分布的基尼系数(Gini coefficient)。预测变量涵盖四大领域：经济指标（GDP增长率、人均GDP、贸易开放度、股票市场资本化水平、政府支出、通货膨胀率、失业率）；金融开放与监管（奇恩-伊藤指数(Chinn-Ito index)、奎因资本与经常账户指数、收入与资本利得税）；政治制度（执政党立场、选举制度、法律起源）；以及教育与劳动力市场状况（就业保护严格程度、平均受教育年限）。本研究数据来源于世界银行世界发展指标(World Bank World Development Indicators)、全球金融发展数据库(Global Financial Development Database)、政治制度数据库(Database of Political Institutions)、经合组织就业保护指标(OECD Indicators of Employment Protection)以及奇恩-伊藤与奎因指数。补充分析则采用了世界不平等数据库(World Inequality Database)提供的按百分位划分的个人净财富数据，以及英国国家统计局(Office for National Statistics)提供的1971—1985年与1986—2000年期间英国各地区的可支配收入与GDP增长率数据。