Data and Code for: Optimism About Graduation and College Financial Aid

These files replicate the results in "Optimism About Graduation and College Financial Aid," by Emily G. Moschini, Gajendran Raveendranathan, and Ming Xu. Abstract: In the United States, college dropout risk is sizable. We provide new empirical evidence that beliefs about the likelihood of earning a bachelor’s degree predict college enrollment, and that the distribution of these beliefs exhibits widespread optimism. We incorporate this distribution of beliefs into an overlapping generations model with college as a risky investment that can be financed via federal loans, grants, family transfers, or earnings. We then examine the welfare impact of access to federal student loans. We find that access can reduce welfare for young adults who are low-skilled, poor, and optimistic, due to their mistaken beliefs.

本数据集复刻了Emily G. Moschini、Gajendran Raveendranathan与Ming Xu合著的《毕业乐观预期与大学财政资助》一文的研究结果。摘要：在美国，大学辍学风险颇为显著。我们提供了全新的实证证据，表明个体对获得学士学位可能性的预期能够预测其大学入学决策，且这类预期的分布呈现出普遍的乐观偏向。我们将这类预期分布纳入世代交叠模型中，该模型将大学教育视作一项风险投资，其资金可通过联邦贷款、助学金、家庭资助或个人劳动收入筹措。随后我们分析了联邦学生贷款可得性对社会福利的影响。研究发现，对于技能水平较低、家境贫寒且持有乐观预期的年轻群体而言，联邦学生贷款的可得性反而会降低其福利水平，这源于他们的错误认知。