The effect of government policy on the battery electric vehicle demand

The electric vehicle trend is rising high around the world. Many people have selected battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as their first choice, but Thailand did not get that much attention. In 2020, BEVs took around 54.3% of the first car market increase from 2019 by 11.9% (Norway first country to see electric cars comprise 50% of net vehicle sales, 2022). So, this study examines any factors that impact BEVs and their impact on each factor. This study aims to develop a system dynamics model to forecast the effect of Thai government policy on BEVs and use this model to conduct the policy analysis to increase battery electric vehicle users in Thailand. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of Thai government policy on electric vehicle demand in Thailand. To analyze the scenarios of which policies should be lunch together and suitable for Thai government situations. The main procedure for forecasting the trend of electric vehicles includes gathering data sources, validating key factors, and system dynamics modeling approach to model the trend of BEVs usage. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of three key factors was also conducted.

全球电动汽车趋势正日益升温。许多人已将纯电动汽车（Battery Electric Vehicles, BEVs）列为首选，但泰国在这方面并未受到太多关注。2020年，纯电动汽车占据了2019年至2020年首次购车市场增长额的约54.3%，该市场整体增长11.9%（挪威是首个电动汽车占新车净销量50%的国家，2022）。因此，本研究探究所有影响纯电动汽车的因素，以及这些因素之间的相互影响。本研究旨在构建系统动力学模型，以预测泰国政府政策对纯电动汽车的影响，并利用该模型开展政策分析，从而增加泰国的纯电动汽车用户数量。本研究的目的在于检验泰国政府政策对该国电动汽车需求的影响，并分析哪些政策组合应被推出且适合泰国国情。预测电动汽车趋势的主要步骤包括数据来源收集、关键因素验证，以及采用系统动力学建模方法对纯电动汽车使用趋势进行建模。此外，本研究还对三个关键因素开展了敏感性分析。