Medical Care in Emergency Units with Risk Classification: Time to Attendance at a Hospital based on Parametric Models

ABSTRACT. The present work intends to study the effectiveness of applying the Manchester Triage System to improve patient flow in a Brazilian hospital, which allows a more welcoming and decisive service. Thus, time to event techniques is applied based on parametric regression models with the objective of investigating indicators for the emergency/urgency sector and thus, contributing to better operational efficiency. The results show that different explanatory variables such as classification, age, period, among others, influence the time of attendance. In the end, we provide a simple model that can be used to predict such time under different explanatory variables for a particular Brazilian hospital.

摘要：本研究旨在探究应用曼彻斯特分诊系统（Manchester Triage System）以改善巴西某医院患者流量的效果，该系统可提供更具服务温度且决策精准的诊疗服务。据此，本研究采用基于参数回归模型的事件发生时间分析技术，旨在探究急诊科室的相关指标，进而助力提升运营效率。研究结果表明，分诊分级、年龄、时段等多项解释变量均会对就诊时长产生影响。最后，本研究针对该巴西医院构建了一款简易模型，可基于不同解释变量对上述就诊时长进行预测。