O setor agroexportador brasileiro no contexto da integração Mercosul/UE

From the prospect of implementation of the Mercosul/UE agreement, which should allow the strengthening of the trade between the two blocks, we analyzed the possible gains in two alternative scenarios of integration using a Partial Equilibrium Model for the estimation of trade creation and trade deviation in the Brazilian Agricultural Export Sector. The results for the two levels of tariff reduction confirmed the expectations that the integration Mercosul/UE would provide significant commercial gains for the Brazilian agribusiness. In addition, the estimates of trade creation were for most of the simulations superior to those of trade deviation, confirming the productive efficiency and competitiveness of the Brazilian Agricultural Export Sector in the world economy.

从南方共同市场/欧盟（Mercosul/UE）协议的实施前景来看，该协议有望加强两大区块之间的贸易往来。我们采用局部均衡模型（Partial Equilibrium Model），对巴西农业出口部门在两种替代一体化情景下的潜在收益进行了分析，以估算贸易创造（trade creation）和贸易转移（trade deviation）效应。两种关税削减水平下的结果均证实了预期——南方共同市场/欧盟一体化将为巴西农业综合企业带来显著的商业收益。此外，在大多数模拟中，贸易创造的估算值均高于贸易转移，这证实了巴西农业出口部门在世界经济中的生产效率和竞争力。