Multidimensional Economic Complexity and Fiscal Crises

Recent
studies highlight economic complexity’s role in mitigating fiscal crises, often
measured via an economy’s trade structure. Trade, however, is just one facet of
an economy’s structure and omits critical innovative activities like research.
Here, we investigate how a multidimensional approach to economic
complexity—including both trade and research structures—relates to fiscal
instability. By using data on over 230 national fiscal crises from 1995 to 2021
and hazard duration analysis, we assess how measures of trade and research
complexity combine to explain crisis likelihood. We find that the interaction
of complexity dimensions significantly reduces crisis probability, whereas
individual indexes alone are not robust predictors. This suggests that economies
focusing on a single dimension may be more vulnerable, thus highlighting the
importance of balanced development across multiple areas. These findings offer
valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance economic resilience and
mitigate fiscal risks.

近期研究凸显了经济复杂度在缓解财政危机中的作用，该复杂度通常通过经济体的贸易结构来衡量。然而，贸易仅是经济体结构的一个方面，它遗漏了研究等关键创新活动。在此，我们探讨了一种涵盖贸易与研究结构的多维经济复杂度方法与财政不稳定之间的关系。通过使用1995年至2021年间230余起国家财政危机的数据及风险持续时间分析，我们评估了贸易与研究复杂度测度如何共同解释危机发生的可能性。研究发现，复杂度维度的交互作用显著降低了危机概率，而单一维度的指标并非稳健的预测因子。这表明，专注于单一维度的经济体可能更为脆弱，从而凸显了多领域均衡发展的重要性。这些发现为旨在提升经济韧性和缓解财政风险的政策制定者提供了宝贵启示。