Necessity test of a single conditional variable.

Based on the panel data of 118 countries from 2013 to 2024, this paper uses the tsQCA method to explore the synergistic effect of various factors of innovation input on innovation output capacity, and reveals multiple paths to improve national innovation output. The results show that there are four ways to improve the output of high innovation, which can be summarized into two models: “Institution + Human Capital and Research + Business Maturity” and “Infrastructure + Market Maturity + Business Maturity”, among which business maturity is an indispensable core factor for countries to improve their innovation output capacity. In the time dimension, the consistency level of the four high-innovation output configuration pathways in 2019–2020 was low. In the spatial dimension, there are obvious regional differences in innovation output among countries. Among them, there is a considerable gap in innovation output capacity in Africa compared with other regions; Influenced by the process of economic transformation and the pace of institutional improvement, the level of innovation output in Eastern Europe lies between that of Europe and America on one hand and Central and South Asia on the other; Central and South Asia has formed a gradient gap with Europe and America as a whole due to insufficient infrastructure and limited market maturity.

本研究基于2013至2024年118个国家的面板数据，采用时序定性比较分析（tsQCA）方法探究创新投入各要素对创新产出能力的协同效应，并揭示了提升国家创新产出的多重路径。研究结果表明，提升高创新产出的路径共有四类，可归纳为两种模式：「制度+人力资本与研发+商业成熟度」模式与「基础设施+市场成熟度+商业成熟度」模式，其中商业成熟度是各国提升创新产出能力不可或缺的核心要素。在时间维度上，2019至2020年四类高创新产出配置路径的一致性水平较低。在空间维度上，各国的创新产出存在显著的区域差异。其中，非洲地区的创新产出能力与其他地区相比差距悬殊；受经济转型进程与制度完善节奏的影响，东欧地区的创新产出水平介于欧美与中南亚之间；而中南亚地区因基础设施建设不足、市场成熟度有限，整体与欧美形成了梯度差距。