国家减灾委员会办公室 应急管理部发布9月份全国自然灾害风险形势

近日，国家减灾委员会办公室、应急管理部会同自然资源部、水利部、农业农村部、气象局、林草局等部门和单位召开会商会，对9月份全国自然灾害风险形势进行会商研判。 　　综合分析认为，9月份全国强降水天气仍然多发，华西秋雨进入集中期，西南、西北和东北部分地区洪涝灾害风险较高；有2-3个台风登陆或显著影响我国；华北、内蒙古、西北地区东部等部分地区存在阶段性干旱风险；四川、云南等局地地质灾害风险高；华北、华南、西北等部分地区森林火险等级较高。具体如下： 　　一是洪涝灾害风险。预计9月份，黑龙江大部、四川西部、云南西部、青海南部、新疆、西藏东部等地降水较常年同期偏多，其中黑龙江东部、新疆北部等地偏多2-5成，上述地区强降水和强对流天气引发山洪、风雹和城市内涝风险较高。长江上游金沙江及支流雅砻江、岷江、沱江，珠江流域东江、韩江，太湖周边河网区及浙闽地区，松辽流域松花江等江河可能出现暴雨洪水，部分河流可能发生超警洪水。 　　二是台风灾害风险。9月份西北太平洋和南海海域可能有4-5个台风生成，接近常年同期（4.9个）到偏少；其中2-3个台风登陆或显著影响我国沿海地区，较常年同期（1.6个）偏多。我国沿海可能出现1-2次灾害性台风风暴潮过程，1次灾害性温带风暴潮过程，近海海域可能出现3-4次灾害性海浪过程。 　　三是地质灾害风险。浙江、安徽、湖北、湖南、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海等部分地区发生地质灾害的风险较高。其中，四川南部、云南西北部等局部地区发生地质灾害的风险高。 　　四是高温干旱风险。当前西南地区东北部、西北地区东部、华北地区西部等地部分地区土壤中度以上缺墒。预计9月份，华北、内蒙古西部、华东地区北部和南部、华中地区北部、西北地区东部等地气温偏高1-2℃，降水偏少2-5成，上述部分地区存在阶段性干旱风险。 　　五是森林火灾风险。受高温少雨和人为用火等因素影响，9月份北京北部、河北北部、内蒙古中东部、黑龙江西北部、浙江中南部、福建中南部、江西南部、广东大部、广西东部、湖北西部、湖南西部、陕西北部、甘肃中西部、宁夏西部局部可能出现较高火险等级。 来源：应急管理部 发布日期：2023-09-01

Recently, the Office of the National Commission for Disaster Reduction and the Ministry of Emergency Management, together with relevant departments and units including the Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China Meteorological Administration, and National Forestry and Grassland Administration, held a consultation meeting to analyze and judge the national natural disaster risk situation in September. A comprehensive analysis indicates that heavy rainfall will remain frequent across China in September. The autumn rain in West China will enter its concentrated period, with relatively high flood disaster risks in parts of Southwest, Northwest and Northeast China; 2 to 3 typhoons may make landfall or significantly affect China; parts of North China, Inner Mongolia, eastern Northwest China and other regions face phased drought risks; local areas in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places have high geological disaster risks; and parts of North China, South China, Northwest China and other regions have relatively high forest fire danger grades. The details are as follows:
1. Flood disaster risk: It is estimated that in September, precipitation in most parts of Heilongjiang, western Sichuan, western Yunnan, southern Qinghai, Xinjiang, eastern Tibet and other areas will be higher than the same period of previous years, with an increase of 20% to 50% in eastern Heilongjiang, northern Xinjiang and other places. The above regions face relatively high risks of mountain torrents, hailstorms and urban waterlogging caused by heavy rainfall and severe convective weather. Rainstorm floods may occur in major rivers including the Jinsha River and its tributaries Yalong River, Minjiang River and Tuojiang River in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the Dongjiang River and Hanjiang River in the Pearl River Basin, the river network areas around Taihu Lake and Zhejiang-Fujian regions, and the Songhua River in the Songliao Basin, and some rivers may exceed the warning water level.
2. Typhoon disaster risk: There may be 4 to 5 typhoons formed in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in September, which is close to or slightly less than the average of 4.9 in the same period of previous years; among them, 2 to 3 typhoons will make landfall or significantly affect China's coastal areas, which is higher than the average of 1.6 in the same period of previous years. China's coastal areas may experience 1 to 2 catastrophic typhoon storm surge processes and 1 catastrophic temperate storm surge process, and offshore areas may experience 3 to 4 catastrophic sea wave processes.
3. Geological disaster risk: Parts of Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and other regions have relatively high risks of geological disasters. Among them, local areas such as southern Sichuan and northwestern Yunnan have high geological disaster risks.
4. High-temperature and drought risk: At present, some areas in northeastern Southwest China, eastern Northwest China, western North China and other regions have moderate or higher soil moisture deficits. It is estimated that in September, the temperature in North China, western Inner Mongolia, northern and southern East China, northern Central China, eastern Northwest China and other regions will be 1 to 2℃ higher than normal, and precipitation will be 20% to 50% less than normal, and some of the above regions face phased drought risks.
5. Forest fire risk: Affected by high temperature, low rainfall, human fire use and other factors, local areas including northern Beijing, northern Hebei, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, northwestern Heilongjiang, central and southern Zhejiang, central and southern Fujian, southern Jiangxi, most parts of Guangdong, eastern Guangxi, western Hubei, western Hunan, northern Shaanxi, central and western Gansu, western Ningxia may have relatively high forest fire danger grades in September.
Source: Ministry of Emergency Management, Release Date: 2023-09-01