Determinants of Trade Flow in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS): Does Governance Matter?

Subject and purpose of work: This study analyzes the determinants of intra-ECCAS trade, with special attention paid to the role of institutional quality from 1996 to 2021. Materials and methods: The study conducts descriptive analysis and utilizes a Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum Likelihood to analyze the determinants of intra-ECCAS trade. Results: The results suggest that gross domestic product (GDP), population, time taken for export shipment in the exporting countries and the bilateral real exchange rate of the importing partner country enhance intra-ECCAS trade flow. On the other hand, distance, two trading partners being landlocked, time for importing countries and bilateral real exchange rate of the exporting partner discourage this. Furthermore, the findings reveal that institutions are vital to intra-ECCAS trade. Conclusions: T he key d rivers of intra-ECCAS t rade a re GDP, population, t ime t aken for export shipment in the exporting countries, bilateral real exchange rate of the importing partner country, and institutions’ quality measures.

工作主题与目的：本研究分析1996-2021年中部非洲国家经济共同体（ECCAS）内部贸易的影响因素，并特别关注制度质量的作用。
材料与方法：本研究采用描述性分析方法，并运用负二项伪极大似然法（Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum Likelihood）分析ECCAS内部贸易的影响因素。
结果：研究结果表明，国内生产总值（GDP）、人口规模、出口国的出口运输时间以及进口伙伴国的双边实际汇率均能促进ECCAS内部贸易流量；反之，地理距离、贸易双方均为内陆国、进口国的进口时间以及出口伙伴国的双边实际汇率则会抑制该贸易流量。此外，研究发现制度质量对ECCAS内部贸易至关重要。
结论：ECCAS内部贸易的关键驱动因素包括国内生产总值（GDP）、人口规模、出口国的出口运输时间、进口伙伴国的双边实际汇率以及制度质量指标。