Measurement results.

In this paper, we develop a DSGE model including heterogeneous households, introduce the financial friction of credit constraint mechanism, and study the impact of house price shocks on the consumption of heterogeneous household. Based on this, the CHFS data in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2019 were used to test the marginal propensity to consume for housing wealth appreciation under different credit constraints. Results show that: Firstly, the financial accelerator mechanism plays an important role in the transmission of housing price shocks to household consumption. The looser the degree of credit constraints, the more obvious the rise in housing prices will be to the consumption expenditure of borrowing household. Secondly, the impact of housing wealth appreciation on household consumption under different credit constraints is heterogeneous. Among them, housing wealth appreciation has a significant positive impact on household consumption expenditure with multiple houses, credit cards, non-loan restrictions, while the marginal effect on the consumption expenditure of households with only one house, loan limited, and no credit cards decreases. Thirdly, for every 1% increase in the housing wealth appreciation, household consumption will increase significantly by 0.10–0.14%.

本文构建了包含异质性家庭的动态随机一般均衡模型（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE），引入信贷约束机制下的金融摩擦，研究房价冲击对异质性家庭消费的影响。在此基础上，采用2011、2013、2015、2017及2019年中国家庭金融调查（China Household Finance Survey, CHFS）数据，检验不同信贷约束条件下住房财富增值的消费边际倾向。
研究结果表明：其一，金融加速器机制在房价冲击向家庭消费的传导过程中发挥重要作用；信贷约束程度越宽松，房价上涨对借贷家庭消费支出的提振效应越显著。其二，不同信贷约束条件下，住房财富增值对家庭消费的影响存在异质性：其中，多套房、持有信用卡且不受信贷限制的家庭，其消费支出会受到住房财富增值的显著正向影响；而仅拥有一套住房、信贷受限且未持有信用卡的家庭，其消费支出的边际效应则会减弱。其三，住房财富每增值1%，家庭消费将显著提升0.10%至0.14%。