R Code for analysis from Perceived and actual fighting ability: determinants of success by decision, knockout or submission in human combat sports

Animal contest theory assumes individuals to possess accurate information about their own fighting ability or resource-holding potential (RHP) and, under some models, that of their opponent. However, due to the difficulty of disentangling perceived and actual RHP in animals, how accurately individuals are able to assess RHP remains relatively unknown. Furthermore, it is not just individuals within a fight that evaluate RHP. Third-party observers evaluate the fight performance of conspecifics in order to make behavioural decisions. In human combat sports, when fights remain unresolved at the end of the allotted time, bystanders take a more active role, with judges assigning victory based on their assessment of each fighter's performance. Here, we use fight data from mixed martial arts in order to investigate whether perceived fighting performance (judges' decisions) and actual fighting success (fights ending in knock out or submission) are based on the same performance traits, specifically striking skill and vigour. Our results indicate that both performance traits are important for victory, but that vigour is more important for fights resolved via decision, even though the effect of vigour is enhanced by skill. These results suggest that while similar traits are important for fighting success across the board, vigour is overvalued in judges' perceptions of RHP.

动物竞赛理论（Animal contest theory）假定个体能够准确掌握自身的争斗能力或资源持有潜力（resource-holding potential，RHP）的相关信息，在部分理论模型中还可获知对手的此类信息。然而，由于难以区分动物所感知的与实际的资源持有潜力，个体对RHP的准确评估能力迄今仍相对不明晰。进一步而言，并非只有参与争斗的个体才会评估RHP，第三方观察者亦会通过评估同类的争斗表现以制定自身的行为决策。在人类搏击运动中，若赛事在规定时长内未能决出胜负，旁观者将承担更主动的职责，由裁判基于对每位选手表现的评估结果判定胜负。本研究采用综合格斗（mixed martial arts，MMA）的赛事数据，旨在探究感知格斗表现（即裁判判罚结果）与实际格斗战果（即通过击倒或降服终结的赛事）是否基于相同的表现特征，具体为击打技巧与格斗活力。研究结果表明，两类表现特征均对获胜至关重要；即便格斗活力的影响会因击打技巧而得到增强，其在裁判判定胜负的赛事中仍占据更为核心的地位。上述结果显示，尽管类似特征对全域格斗取胜均具有重要意义，但裁判在评估RHP时，却存在对格斗活力的过度高估。