Heterogeneity of market potential.

Developing exports of technology-intensive products is a key focus for China’s high-quality foreign trade development. The rapid growth of global digital trade brings new opportunities and challenges for China’s exports of technology-intensive products. This paper utilizes panel data from 2005 to 2022. And we construct an extended gravity model to thoroughly investigate the impact of digital trade development in importing countries on China’s exports of technology-intensive products. The research findings indicate: (1) The development of digital trade in importing countries significantly promotes China’s exports of technology-intensive products. This effect is more pronounced beyond a certain threshold. (2) The reduction of trade costs and increased foreign direct investment play intermediary roles in facilitating the impact of digital trade in importing countries on China’s exports of technology-intensive products. However, institutional distance exerts a negative inhibitory effect on this process. (3) The impact of digital trade development in importing countries on China’s exports of technology products varies due to differences in product types, national income levels, regional characteristics, economic cooperation, and market potential. The conclusions of this paper provide theoretical and empirical evidence for the Chinese government to enhance the efficiency of exporting technology-intensive products.

技术密集型产品出口发展是中国高质量外贸发展的关键着力点。全球数字贸易（Digital Trade）的迅猛增长，为中国技术密集型产品出口带来了全新的机遇与挑战。本文采用2005至2022年的面板数据（Panel Data），构建扩展引力模型（Extended Gravity Model），全面深入探究进口国数字贸易发展对中国技术密集型产品出口的影响。研究结果显示：（1）进口国数字贸易发展对中国技术密集型产品出口具有显著促进作用，且该效应在突破特定门槛后更为凸显。（2）贸易成本降低与外商直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）提升，在进口国数字贸易影响中国技术密集型产品出口的路径中发挥中介传导作用；而制度距离则对该过程产生负向抑制效应。（3）进口国数字贸易发展对中国技术产品出口的影响，因产品类型、国民收入水平、区域特征、经济合作状况及市场潜力的差异而呈现异质性特征。本文的研究结论为中国政府提升技术密集型产品出口效率提供了理论与实证依据。