Table_1_Assessment of environmental and farm business impacts of phosphorus policies in two European regions.docx

This paper presents analyses of the economic and environmental impact of relevant phosphorus management policy scenarios, using representative pig and poultry farms in the Emilia-Romagna region (Po River basin, Italy) and Niedersachsen region (Ems River basin, Germany) as case studies. The analysis was done by using a farm-level linear programming bioeconomic model developed for different farm and animal types—sows, fattening pigs, laying hens and broilers. The baseline for the assessed scenarios involved farms situated within the Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs) and therefore, were subject to indirect phosphorus fertilization limitations via the Nitrates Directive (ND). The analyzed phosphorus management policy scenarios included the implementation of two different balances of 8.7 kg and 4.35 kg of P per ha per year, inspired by the German Fertilizer Ordinance for phosphorus fertilization implemented in 2007 and later updated from 2017 up to 2023, respectively. We also included a more rigorous zero P balance scenario. The results of the scenario simulations, based on model assumptions, reveal that the introduction of direct phosphorus management policies for pig and poultry farms situated in high livestock dense regions can be done without causing any significant impact on farm gross margin (around 2% of reduction) for both regions and all four animal types, except for sows and broiler production in the Ems River Basin (up to 12% of reduction). Selected technologies and methods, inspired by current practices, have been analyzed for their cost efficiency to achieve the target P balance of the individual scenarios, including export of slurry out of the farm or export of separation solids. Results also highlight that the Nitrates Directive alone is not enough to handle the P issue in monogastric livestock farms.

本研究针对相关磷管理政策场景的经济与环境影响展开分析，以意大利波河流域艾米利亚-罗马涅大区、德国埃姆斯河流域下萨克森州的典型生猪与家禽养殖场作为案例研究对象。本分析采用针对不同农场类型与畜禽品类（母猪、育肥猪、蛋鸡与肉鸡）开发的农场级线性规划生物经济模型完成。本次评估场景的基线设定为：养殖场位于硝酸盐脆弱区（Nitrate Vulnerable Zones, NVZs）内，因此需遵循《硝酸盐指令》（Nitrates Directive, ND）中关于磷肥施用的间接限制要求。本次分析的磷管理政策场景包含两类磷平衡要求：每公顷每年8.7千克与4.35千克磷，分别参照德国2007年实施、2017年至2023年更新的磷肥施用条例制定；此外还纳入了更为严格的零磷平衡场景。基于模型假设开展的场景模拟结果显示：在畜禽高密度区域推行生猪与家禽养殖场直接磷管理政策，对两个研究区域的四类畜禽品类养殖场的毛利润率均未造成显著影响（降幅约为2%），但埃姆斯河流域的母猪与肉鸡生产除外，其降幅可达12%。本研究针对参照当前实践选取的若干技术与方法开展成本效益分析，以达成各场景设定的磷平衡目标，其中包括养殖场粪液外运或分离固体物外销。研究结果同时表明，仅依靠《硝酸盐指令》无法有效解决单胃畜禽养殖场的磷污染问题。