Do-file for GSEM analyses.

Although the hazards posed by greenhouse warming and COVID-19 are quite different, diagnosis and mitigation prospects for both depend heavily on science. Unfortunately, the reality of both threats has been subject to politicized science rejection in the US, making these deadly problems less tractable. There are substantial parallels between the two cases of science rejection, including common rhetoric and conservative political leadership. Survey research has reached widely-replicated conclusions regarding the social bases of climate-change perceptions. Corresponding studies of COVID-19 perceptions have found some political commonalities, but less agreement on other details. Here, we address this gap using generalized structural equation modeling (GSEM) and 2021 US survey data to make direct comparisons between the social bases of rejecting the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and rejecting COVID-19 vaccination. Trumpism, operationalized from approval of ex-president Trump, is viewed as an intervening variable that influences both types of science rejection. Trumpism itself is predicted by age, race, evangelical religion, ideology, and receptivity to seemingly non-political conspiracy beliefs. Considering direct as well as indirect effects (through Trumpism), climate change and vaccine rejection are similarly predicted by white and evangelical identity, conspiracism, and by education×ideology and friends×party interactions. The finding that Trumpism exacerbates science rejection could also apply to other science- and expertise-related topics unrelated to climate and COVID. These results invite broader comparisons across topics, with analogous movements in other countries, and continued tracking as US Trumpism evolves beyond Trump.

尽管温室效应引发的气候危机与新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情所带来的危害截然不同，但二者的诊断与防控前景均高度依赖科学支撑。遗憾的是，在美国，这两种威胁的真实性都曾遭遇被政治化的科学否定，使得这些致命难题愈发难以解决。这两起科学否定事件存在诸多实质性相似之处，包括共同的言论叙事与保守派政治领导层的推动。针对公众气候变化认知的社会基础，多项调查研究已得出经广泛重复验证的结论。针对新冠疫情认知的对应研究则发现了部分政治层面的共性，但在其他细节上尚未达成一致共识。本研究借助广义结构方程模型（GSEM）与2021年美国调查数据，填补了这一研究空白，直接对比了否定人为气候变化（ACC）真实性与否定新冠疫苗接种必要性的社会基础差异。特朗普主义（以对前总统特朗普的支持度进行操作化定义）被视为影响两类科学否定行为的中介变量。特朗普主义本身的形成受年龄、种族、福音派宗教信仰、意识形态倾向，以及对看似非政治性阴谋论的接受度影响。若同时考虑直接效应与（通过特朗普主义实现的）间接效应，白人身份、福音派身份、阴谋论信念，以及教育程度×意识形态、社交圈×政党认同的交互效应，均可同时预测公众对气候变化与疫苗接种的否定态度。特朗普主义加剧科学否定行为的这一发现，同样可推广至其他与气候、新冠无关的科学与专业知识相关议题。本研究结果可为跨议题比较、其他国家同类反科学运动的相关研究提供参考，同时也可为美国特朗普主义脱离特朗普本人后的持续追踪研究提供方向。