PRELIMINARY Replication Materials for "Adaptability and the Pivot Penalty in Science and Technology"

Preliminary Replication Package for "Adaptability and the Pivot Penalty in Science and Technology"By Ryan Hill, Yian Yin, Carolyn Stein, Xizhao Wang, Dashun Wang, and Benjamin F. JonesNote: This is a preliminary version. Updates will come when publication is finalized.<br>Abstract:Scientists and inventors set the direction of their work amidst an evolving landscape of questions, opportunities, and challenges. This paper introduces a measurement framework to quantify how far researchers move from their existing research when producing new works. We apply this framework to millions of scientific publications and patents and uncover a pervasive “pivot penalty,” where the impact of new research steeply declines the further a researcher moves from their prior work. The pivot penalty applies nearly universally across scientific publishing and patenting and has been growing in magnitude over the past five decades. While creativity frameworks suggest a benefit to exploratory search by researchers and often emphasize outsider advantages in driving breakthroughs, we find little evidence for such an advantage. The pivot penalty is consistent with increasingly narrow specializations of researchers, and when researchers undertake large pivots, a signature of their work is weak engagement with established mixtures of prior knowledge. Unexpected shocks to the research landscape, which may push researchers away from existing areas or pull them into new ones, further demonstrate substantial pivot penalties. COVID-19 provides a high-scale case study, where many researchers engaged the pandemic, yet the pivot penalty remains severe. The pivot penalty generalizes across fields, career stage, productivity, collaboration, and funding contexts, highlighting both the breadth and depth of the adaptive challenge. Overall, the findings point to large and increasing challenges in adapting to new opportunities and threats. The results have implications for individual researchers, research organizations, science policy, and the capacity of science and society as a whole to confront emergent demands.

《"科技领域的适应性与转型代价"初步复现包》
作者：瑞安·希尔（Ryan Hill）、尹怡然（Yian Yin）、卡罗琳·斯坦（Carolyn Stein）、王锡朝（Xizhao Wang）、王大顺（Dashun Wang）、本杰明·F·琼斯（Benjamin F. Jones）
备注：本版本为初步版本，最终正式刊发后将更新相关内容。

摘要：科学家与发明家在持续演变的问题、机遇与挑战格局中锚定研究方向。本文构建一套量化分析框架，用以衡量研究者在产出新研究成果时，与其既往研究方向的偏离幅度。我们将该框架应用于数百万篇科学出版物（Scientific Publication）与专利（Patent），并揭示了普遍存在的"转型代价（Pivot Penalty）"现象：新研究的影响力随研究者偏离既有研究的程度加深而急剧下降。
转型代价现象几乎普遍存在于科学论文发表与专利申请场景中，且在过去五十年间其影响强度持续攀升。尽管现有创造力研究框架认为研究者开展探索性研究将带来收益，且常强调外来者在推动突破性成果上的优势，但我们几乎未发现此类优势的实证依据。
转型代价现象与研究者研究领域的日益窄化相契合；当研究者开展大规模转型时，其研究成果的典型特征是对既有知识组合的引用参与度不足。研究环境中的意外冲击——可能推动研究者脱离既有领域或吸引其进入新领域——进一步印证了显著的转型代价。新冠疫情便是一例极具规模的案例：众多研究者投身疫情相关研究，但转型代价依然严峻。
转型代价现象在不同学科、职业阶段、研究产出效率、合作模式与资助场景中均普遍存在，凸显了适应性挑战的广度与深度。综上，本研究结果表明，研究者在适应新机遇与新威胁时面临着日益严峻且不断加剧的挑战。该研究结论对个体研究者、科研机构、科学政策制定，以及整个科学与社会应对突发需求的能力均具有重要启示意义。