Results of sensitivity tests.

This study aims to reveal short-run and long-run asymmetries among human capital, educational inequality, and income inequality in China over the period 1975–2020 using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. The estimated long-run asymmetry parameters reflect that positive shocks to secondary education (SSE) and higher education (HE) are negatively correlated with income Gini coefficient. The adverse shocks of secondary education (SSE) and higher education (HE) stimulate the Gini coefficient of income, but the effect of secondary education (SSE) on the Gini coefficient of income is not significant, while that of higher education (HE) is significant. The results also highlight that, in the long run, there is a significant asymptotic effect of the education Gini coefficient (educational inequality) and economic growth on the income Gini coefficient (income inequality). However, physical capital stock has a significant adverse effect on income inequality in the long run. Higher education significantly promotes educational inequality, while the square of higher education significantly reduces educational inequality, thus verifying the inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve hypothesis between higher education and educational inequality. Strategically, this study suggests higher education as a powerful tool for mitigating income inequality by emphasizing educational equity.

本研究旨在采用非线性自回归分布滞后（nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag, NARDL）模型，探究1975年至2020年中国范围内人力资本、教育不平等与收入不平等之间的短期与长期非对称关联。经估计得到的长期非对称参数显示，中等教育（secondary education, SSE）与高等教育（higher education, HE）的正向冲击与收入基尼系数（income Gini coefficient）呈负相关关系；而中等教育与高等教育的负向冲击则会推高收入基尼系数，但中等教育对收入基尼系数的影响并不显著，高等教育的影响则具备统计显著性。研究结果同时凸显，长期来看，教育基尼系数（education Gini coefficient，即教育不平等程度）与经济增长对收入基尼系数存在显著的渐近效应。不过，物质资本存量在长期内对收入不平等具有显著的负向影响。高等教育会显著加剧教育不平等，而高等教育的平方项则会显著降低教育不平等，由此验证了高等教育与教育不平等之间存在倒U型库兹涅茨曲线（Kuznets curve）假说。从战略层面而言，本研究建议将高等教育作为通过强化教育公平以缓解收入不平等的有力工具。