Migration, Diversity, and Economic Development: Post-WWII Displacement in Poland

How does cultural diversity affect social organization? Do institutional differences between diverse and homogeneous communities have implications for economic development? I argue that heterogeneity not only weakens informal enforcement mechanisms that rely on shared norms and networks, but also creates demand for formal (public-order) institutions provided by the state. I further argue that the predominance of formal over informal institutional mechanisms in more heterogeneous communities can lead to divergent economic outcomes when formal institutions adequately protect private property and enforce contracts. In particular, greater reliance on formal law and public authority facilitates economic development by enabling arm’s length transactions and encouraging entrepreneurship. I provide empirical evidence for this argument by drawing on micro-level historical data on population transfers following the shift in Poland’s borders in 1945, one of the largest episodes of forced migration in Europe’s recent history. The border changes triggered resettlement of nearly six million people, or one-fifth of Poland’s pre-war population, from the USSR, Central Poland, and Western and Southern Europe into the communities abandoned by ethnic Germans. Arbitrary resettlement procedures produced varying degrees of cultural heterogeneity at the local level. I find that homogeneous migrant groups were more successful in reestablishing private-order institutions that relied on informal enforcement mechanisms, such as volunteer fire brigades, while diverse migrant communities depended on the state for the provision of public goods and enforcement of cooperative behavior. Economically similar during state socialism, communities settled by diverse migrants in the 1940s registered higher incomes and greater entrepreneurship following the transition to a market economy. Their residents also express greater confidence in formal institutions, such as courts and the police.

文化多样性如何影响社会组织？多样化社区与同质化社区之间的制度差异是否会对经济发展产生影响？本文认为，文化异质性不仅会削弱依赖共享规范与社会网络的非正式执行机制，还会催生对国家提供的正式（公共秩序）制度的需求。本文进一步提出，当正式制度能够充分保护私有产权并执行合同时，在异质性更强的社区中，正式制度相较于非正式制度的主导地位可能会带来差异化的经济结果。具体而言，对正式法律与公共权威的更高依赖，能够通过促成非人格化交易（arm’s length transactions）并鼓励创业，推动经济发展。本文借助1945年波兰边界调整后人口迁移的微观历史数据，为上述论点提供了经验证据——这是欧洲近代史上规模最大的强制性移民事件之一。此次边界变更导致近600万人（相当于波兰战前人口的五分之一）从苏联、波兰中部、西欧与南欧迁入原德意志族裔遗弃的社区。随意的安置程序在地方层面造成了不同程度的文化异质性。研究发现，同质化的移民群体更成功地重建了依赖非正式执行机制的私人秩序制度，例如志愿消防队；而多元移民社区则依赖国家提供公共物品并执行合作行为规范。在社会主义时期经济状况相似的社区中，1940年代由多元移民定居的社区在向市场经济转型后，实现了更高的收入与更活跃的创业活动。这些社区的居民也对法院、警方等正式制度表现出更高的信任度。