Table_1_Toward a forest transition across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome.PDF

The world has entered the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030), yet many regions of the world still face environmental degradation. In this context a question arises: under what conditions may a given region shift from a trajectory of environmental degradation to environmental recovery? Answering this question constitutes an important endeavor for the scientific community, policymakers, and organizations leading the planning and implementation of restoration projects. This study examines some of the human-environment conditions underpinning the net gains in natural forest cover in a region that has experienced environmental degradation: the Atlantic Forest biome, Brazil. Using land-use/cover (LULC) data, we assessed the loss and successive gain in forest cover during the 1987–2001 and 2001–2015 periods. Municipality-level statistics on agriculture and economy, together with LULC and biophysical data, were used to develop models for assessing forest cover trajectories. Of the 1,972 municipalities experiencing net forest loss during the 1987–2001 period, 59% shifted their trajectory to a net gain during the 2001–2015 period. This shift, known as forest transition, followed a complex socio-economic pathway characterized by (i) the stagnation of traditional agricultural activities favoring the replacement of pasturelands by mechanized agriculture, and (ii) the emergence of non-agricultural rural activities together with multifunctional landscapes. Furthermore, a trend of decrease in precipitation seems to be associated with land abandonment, thus, favoring the return of natural vegetation. Our findings suggest that forest transition at the biome level is possible if environmental and land regulations take advantage of specific context-dependent situations that foster net forest gains.

当前世界已进入联合国生态系统恢复十年（2021–2030年），但全球诸多区域仍面临环境退化问题。在此背景下，一项关键议题应运而生：在何种条件下，特定区域能够从环境退化的发展轨迹转向环境恢复路径？解答这一问题，对于科学界、政策制定者以及牵头规划与实施生态修复项目的组织而言，均是一项重要的科研工作。本研究聚焦曾经历环境退化的区域——巴西大西洋森林生物群系（Atlantic Forest biome），探讨支撑该区域天然林覆盖净增长的部分人地环境条件。研究利用土地利用/覆被（Land Use/Land Cover, LULC）数据，评估了1987–2001年以及2001–2015年两个时段内森林覆盖的损失与后续恢复情况。本研究结合县级行政区的农业与经济统计数据、土地利用/覆被数据以及生物物理数据，构建了用于评估森林覆盖发展轨迹的模型。在1987–2001年期间出现森林净损失的1972个县级行政区中，有59%在2001–2015年期间实现了森林覆盖轨迹向净增长的转变，这一转变即森林转型（forest transition）。该转型遵循一条复杂的社会经济路径，其特征为：(i) 传统农业活动陷入停滞，推动机械化农业替代牧场用地；(ii) 非农乡村活动兴起，同时形成多功能景观格局。此外，降水减少的趋势似乎与土地撂荒存在关联，进而促进了自然植被的恢复。本研究结果表明，若环境与土地利用监管政策能够因地制宜，利用有利于实现森林净增长的特定情境，则生物群系层面的森林转型具备可行性。