The effects of monetary policy through housing and mortgage choices on aggregate demand

<div>Housing and mortgage choices are among the largest financial decisions households make and they substantially impact households’ liquidity. This paper explores how monetary policy affects aggregate demand by influencing these portfolio choices. To quantify this channel, I build a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model with long-term mortgages and endogenous house prices. I find that, although only a small fraction of households adjust their housing and mortgage holdings in response to an expansionary monetary policy shock, these households account for over 50 percent of the increase in aggregate demand. Mortgage refinancing explains approximately four-fifths of the contribution, whereas adjusted housing choices account for one-fifth—uncovering a new transmission channel. I also show that the different pass-through of the policy rate to short and long mortgage rates drives the difference in the house-price and aggregate demand response between economies with adjustable-rate as compared to fixed-rate mortgages.</div>

住房与抵押贷款选择是家庭作出的规模最大的金融决策之一，且会对家庭的流动性产生显著影响。本文探究货币政策如何通过影响这类资产组合选择来作用于总需求。为量化这一传导渠道，本文构建了包含长期抵押贷款（long-term mortgages）与内生房价（endogenous house prices）的异质性代理人生命周期模型（heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model）。研究发现，尽管仅有少量家庭会针对扩张性货币政策冲击（expansionary monetary policy shock）调整其住房与抵押贷款持有状况，但这类家庭贡献了总需求增长的50%以上。其中，抵押贷款再融资（mortgage refinancing）约解释了该贡献的五分之四，而住房选择调整仅占五分之一——这一发现揭示了全新的货币政策传导渠道。本文还表明，政策利率向短期与长期抵押贷款利率的不同传导程度，导致了可调利率抵押贷款（adjustable-rate mortgages）经济体与固定利率抵押贷款（fixed-rate mortgages）经济体在房价与总需求响应上的差异。