Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2

We sought to evaluate contact rate reduction goals for household and close contacts and to provide preventive recommendations during the coronavirus pandemic. We applied an agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within household or close contacts through a social network of 150 nodes. there is no great difference in total infected people within modifications in number of links per node for networks with average number of links per node greater than three. For six nodes, total infected people are 149.85; for five nodes, 148.97; and for four nodes, 141.57. On the other hand, for three nodes, total infected are 82.39, for two nodes, 13.95; and for one node, 2.96. This model indicates a possible pitfall if social distancing measures are not stepwise suspended and close surveillance of cases are not provided, since the relationship between average links per node and number of infected people seems to be s-shaped, and not linear.

本研究旨在评估新冠疫情期间针对家庭及密切接触者的接触率降低目标，并提出相应预防性建议。研究采用基于智能体的模型（agent-based model），通过包含150个节点的社交网络，模拟新型冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）在家庭及密切接触者群体内的传播动力学过程。对于平均单节点连接数大于3的社交网络，调整单节点连接数对总感染人数无显著影响。当平均单节点连接数为6时，总感染人数为149.85；连接数为5时为148.97；连接数为4时为141.57。反之，当平均单节点连接数为3时，总感染人数为82.39；连接数为2时为13.95；连接数为1时为2.96。本模型揭示了一处潜在风险：若未逐步解除社交距离管控措施且未对病例开展密切监测，则可能触发该风险——因平均单节点连接数与感染总人数的关系呈S形曲线，而非线性关系。