Temperature and land-use rates of change for populations of fast and slow species in the LPD

Human-induced environmental changes have a direct impact on species populations, with some species experiencing declines while others display population growth. Understanding why and how species populations respond differently to environmental changes is fundamental to mitigate and predict future biodiversity changes. Theoretically, species life-history strategies are key determinants shaping the response of populations to environmental impacts. Despite this, the association between species' life-histories and the response of populations to environmental changes has not been tested. In this study, we analysed the effects of recent land-cover and temperature changes on rates of population change of 1,072 populations recorded in the Living Planet Database. We selected populations with at least 5 yearly consecutive records (after imputation of missing population estimates) between 1992 and 2016, and for which we achieved high population imputation accuracy (in the cases where missing values had to be imputed). These populations were distributed across 553 different locations and included 461 terrestrial amniote vertebrate species (273 birds, 137 mammals, and 51 reptiles) with different life-history strategies. We showed that populations of fast-lived species inhabiting areas that have experienced recent expansion of cropland or bare soil present positive population trends on average, whereas slow-lived species display negative population trends. Although these findings support previous hypotheses that fast-lived species are better adapted to recover their populations after an environmental perturbation, the sensitivity analysis revealed that model outcomes are strongly influenced by the addition or exclusion of populations with extreme rates of change. Therefore, the results should be interpreted with caution. With climate and land-use changes likely to increase in the future, establishing clear links between species characteristics and responses to these threats is fundamental for designing and conducting conservation actions. The results of this study can aid in evaluating population sensitivity, assessing the likely conservation status of species with poor data coverage, and predicting future scenarios of biodiversity change.

Methods
This dataset contains all the data used to carry out the analysis described in the original paper.

人为活动引发的环境变化会对物种种群产生直接影响，部分物种种群数量出现下降，另有部分则呈现增长态势。明确物种种群对环境变化产生差异化响应的原因与机制，是减缓并预测未来生物多样性变化的核心前提。从理论层面而言，物种生活史策略是决定其种群对环境干扰响应模式的关键因素。尽管如此，物种生活史特征与种群对环境变化的响应之间的关联尚未得到实证检验。本研究针对《生命星球数据库》（Living Planet Database）中收录的1072个种群，分析了近期土地覆盖与温度变化对其种群变化速率的影响。我们筛选出1992年至2016年间至少拥有5年连续观测记录的种群（已对缺失的种群数量估算值进行插补），且在需插补缺失值的场景中，种群插补精度较高。这些种群分布于553个不同区域，涵盖461种具有不同生活史策略的陆地羊膜脊椎动物（其中鸟类273种、哺乳类137种、爬行类51种）。研究结果显示，栖息于近期出现耕地或裸地扩张区域的快生活史物种种群，平均呈现正向种群变化趋势；而慢生活史物种的种群则呈现负向变化趋势。尽管本研究结果支持此前的假说——快生活史物种更能适应环境扰动后的种群恢复过程，但敏感性分析表明，模型结果极易受到是否纳入极端种群变化速率种群的影响。因此，对本研究结果的解读需保持谨慎。未来气候与土地利用变化态势或将加剧，明确物种特征与种群对这些威胁的响应之间的关联，是制定并实施保护行动的核心基础。本研究结果可用于评估种群敏感性、研判数据匮乏物种的潜在保护现状，以及预测生物多样性变化的未来情景。

方法
本数据集包含原文所述分析所使用的全部数据。