Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections

Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe.

气候变化正全球范围内影响生物多样性，但当前的保护应对措施却因预期气候变化的强度、速率及其生态影响存在显著不确定性而受到制约。在此，我们提出了一个可用于量化保护优先级规划中多种不确定性来源的分析框架。在该框架内，我们将涵盖以下五类不确定性来源：(i) 气候变化驱动下的物种分布迁移；(ii) 物种的基本连通性需求；(iii) 不同气候变化情景及其影响；(iv) 物种分布模型构建过程；(v) 当前与未来气候状况的不同置信水平。当气候变化的未来影响存在不确定性时，通过量化与气候情景相关的风险与权衡关系，可提升决策的稳健性。在不过度损害当前保护价值的前提下，我们可以实现同时兼顾物种当前分布与潜在未来分布的合理优先区规划。实现这一目标需要对不确定性进行系统性处理，并检验研究结果对气候相关假设的敏感性。我们以欧洲两栖类与爬行类物种的优先保护区域识别为例，对所提出的框架进行了演示验证。