Candidate-centric systems and the politicization of ethnicity: evidence from Indonesia

When and why do electoral candidates politicize ethnicity? From the literature, we might expect this behaviour to occur during democratic transitions or under proportional rules. However, empirical support for these arguments is mixed. This article presents a new approach, arguing that candidate-centric rules offer candidates incentives to politicize ethnicity. The argument is tested in Indonesia with empirical evidence drawn from coding newspaper reports on campaign events, endorsements and group appeals. Indonesia used party-centric rules from 1997 to 2004, and even though the country democratized during this period, the politicization of ethnicity actually declined. I show how party-centric rules, coupled with a national economic crisis, encouraged candidates to campaign on broad national platforms of reform and development, thereby appealing to the poor rather than to ethnic groups. Between 2004 and 2009, the system became more candidate-centric and the politicization of ethnicity increased. I argue that changes in the system freed candidates from national party platforms and motivated them to campaign on their local connections with ethnic groups. This study is particularly pertinent amidst the push for direct candidate-centric elections in the developing world and the lack of literature on how such rules could affect ethnic politics.

选举候选人何时以及为何会将族裔议题政治化？现有学术文献表明，这类行为或出现于民主转型时期，抑或是在比例代表制（proportional rules）下。但针对这些论断的实证研究结果莫衷一是。本文提出了一种全新研究路径，认为以候选人為中心的选举规则（candidate-centric rules）会为候选人提供将族裔议题政治化的动机。本文以印度尼西亚为研究场景，通过对竞选活动、背书行为与群体诉求相关的报纸报道进行编码分析获取实证数据，对上述论断进行了检验。1997年至2004年间，印尼实行的是以政党為中心的选举规则（party-centric rules）；尽管该国在此期间完成了民主化转型，但族裔议题政治化程度实则有所下降。本文阐释了以政党為中心的选举规则与全国性经济危机如何共同促使候选人依托涵盖改革与发展的全国性竞选纲领开展竞选活动，进而争取贫困群体而非特定族裔群体的支持。2004年至2009年间，印尼选举体系愈发以候选人為中心，族裔议题政治化程度也随之上升。本文认为，选举体系的变革让候选人摆脱了全国性政党纲领的束缚，促使他们依托自身与族裔群体的本地关联开展竞选活动。当前发展中国家正大力推行以候选人為中心的直选模式，而现有文献鲜有探讨此类规则对族裔政治的影响，在此背景下，本研究的现实意义尤为凸显。