Perception accuracy, biases and path dependency in longitudinal social networks

Most studies on perceptions of social structures in organizations rely on cross-sectional evidence and lack a longitudinal perspective. In order to address this gap, we collected whole network perception data at three time points from a cohort of MBA students. First, we asked whether or not individuals become more accurate in their perception of the network over time. We found no significant increase in accuracy. Second, we examined one’s perception of his or her own direct ties and found a consistent tendency to inflate incoming friendship ties, confirming existing studies. However, we find that individuals were quite capable of recognizing the broader dynamics of social hierarchy (i.e., whether they were becoming more or less popular) even as they became no more accurate in understanding either the overall networks or their own ego-net. Third, we explored possible explanations for the persistence of perception errors and showed that most of the errors at time point two and time point three were due to a failure to update previous perception decisions. Finally, we shifted the analysis from accuracy at a given time point and considered the narrative arc of dyadic relations. Our findings suggest that stable dyads across time are more likely to be accurately perceived whereas other types of dyads are poorly tracked. We conclude by presenting possible research questions for future studies to further our understanding of the temporal aspects of network perception.

现有针对组织内社会结构认知的相关研究，大多依赖横截面证据，缺乏纵向研究视角。为填补这一研究空白，我们从一组MBA学生队列中，于三个时间节点收集了整体网络认知数据。其一，我们探究了个体对网络的认知准确度是否会随时间推移而提升，结果显示其准确度并未出现显著提升。其二，我们考察了个体对自身直接社会联结的认知情况，发现受试者始终存在夸大自身接收的友谊联结数量的倾向，这一发现验证了既有研究结论；不过，尽管个体对整体网络或自身自我中心网络（ego-net）的认知准确度并未提升，但他们完全能够识别社会层级的整体动态——即自身受欢迎程度是上升还是下降。其三，我们探究了认知偏差持续存在的潜在成因，结果表明，第二、第三时间节点出现的绝大多数认知偏差，均源于个体未能更新此前的认知判断。其四，我们将分析视角从单一时间点的认知准确度，转向了二元关系（dyadic relations）的动态演变脉络。我们的研究结果显示，随时间保持稳定的二元关系更易被准确认知，而其他类型的二元关系则难以被精准追踪。本研究最后提出若干可供后续研究探讨的问题，以期进一步深化学界对网络认知时间维度的理解。