CRSS-ready Temperature-Adjusted Colorado River Inflows

This dataset holds CRSS-ready flow sequences adjusted for temperature increases in the 21st century (2018 to 2100) as well as temperature increases that occurred during the natural flow period from 1906 to 2017. These flow traces were produced using the methods described in the file memo by Udall (2020). This study developed six different temperature-adjusted natural flow datasets based on considering three different temperature sensitivities (-3%/°C, -6.5%/°C, and -10%/°C) times two different temperature projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The flows were generated by modifying the existing Reclamation natural flow dataset (USBR, 2019) at each of the 29 Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) natural inflow sites. Two main steps of temperature adjustment process in this study were: 1- Create a set of natural flows that would have occurred were temperatures constant from 1906 to 2017 assuming 2017 temperatures, and 2- Further adjust downward the constant 2017 temperature flows to account for expected losses due to warming in the 21st century. The flow data are provided in an CRSS-ready Indexed Sequential Method (ISM) series with a starting year of 2018 and an ending year of 2100.

本数据集包含两类经温度校正的径流序列，均可直接用于科罗拉多河模拟系统（Colorado River Simulation System, CRSS）：一类适配21世纪（2018年至2100年）的升温情景，另一类针对1906年至2017年天然径流期内发生的升温完成校正。这些径流序列采用Udall（2020年）发布的文件备忘录中记载的方法生成。本研究通过组合三种不同的温度敏感性参数（-3%/℃、-6.5%/℃及-10%/℃）与两种温度预估情景（典型浓度路径RCP4.5和RCP8.5），共计构建了六套温度校正天然径流数据集。本次数据集的径流数据通过修改现有美国垦务局（United States Bureau of Reclamation, USBR）2019年发布的天然径流数据集生成，修改范围覆盖CRSS的全部29个天然入流站点。本研究的温度校正流程包含两个核心步骤：1. 构建一套假设1906年至2017年全年温度恒定为2017年水平时，本应产生的天然径流序列；2. 将上述基于2017年恒定温度的径流序列进一步向下调整，以计入21世纪升温带来的预期径流损失。本次提供的径流数据采用适配CRSS的索引顺序法（Indexed Sequential Method, ISM）序列格式，时间跨度为2018年至2100年。