O desafio macroeconômico de 2015-2018

ABSTRACTThe macroeconomic challenge for 2015-2018. This paper presents a macroeconomic outlook of Brazil at the end of 2014 and an analysis of the main challenges to its macroeconomic policy in the subsequent years. On one side, the analysis is focused on the relationship between interest rates, growth and the real exchange rate. On the other, the paper also analyzes the multiples aspects and problems of fiscal policy in Brazil.

摘要：本文围绕2015至2018年的宏观经济挑战展开研究，呈现了2014年末巴西的宏观经济展望，并分析了该国后续数年宏观经济政策面临的核心挑战。一方面，分析重点聚焦于利率、经济增长与实际汇率（real exchange rate）之间的相互关系；另一方面，本文同时剖析了巴西财政政策的多维度面向与现存问题。