Replication data for: Deciding to Keep Peace: An Analysis of International Influences on the Establishment of Third-Party Peacekeeping Missions

Since the end of World War II, and particularly since the end of the Cold War, there has been an expansion in the number of third-party peacekeeping missions established throughout the world. Most of the expansion in peacekeeping missions in the past decade or so has occurred in states experiencing intrastate or civil conflicts. The questions addressed in this study are under what conditions do third-party actors either decide to establish or decide not to establish peacekeeping missions in intrastate disputes, and specifically, what effect do international-level factors have on the likelihood that third-party peacekeeping personnel will be deployed in an intrastate dispute? The previous literature on third-party peacekeeping and interventions is used to derive a set of theoretical arguments and hypotheses regarding the establishment of peacekeeping missions by third-party actors (the United Nations, regional organizations, and ad hoc groups of states) during the post-World War II period. Specifically, I argue that several factors originating at the level of the international system influence the occurrence of third-party peacekeeping missions. The results of statistical analyses of the hypotheses largely support the notion that a set of international-level factors significantly influences the decisions of third-party actors to establish or not establish third-party peacekeeping missions, that international-level factors are more important than state-level factors, that these factors often have different effects on the likelihood of different types of third-party peacekeeping.

自第二次世界大战结束以来，尤其是冷战结束后，全球范围内设立的第三方维和任务（third-party peacekeeping missions）数量呈持续扩张态势。近十余年来，维和任务的扩张大多集中于经历国内冲突或内战的国家。本研究旨在探讨两大核心议题：其一，第三方行为体在国内争端（intrastate disputes）中决定设立或不设立维和任务的前提条件为何；其二，国际层面因素对第三方维和人员部署至国内争端场景的概率存在何种影响。本研究依托现有关于第三方维和与干预行动的学术文献，推导得出二战后时期第三方行为体（联合国、区域组织及特设国家集团）设立维和任务的一系列理论论证与研究假设。具体而言，本研究认为，源自国际体系层面的若干因素会对第三方维和任务的开展产生影响。针对上述研究假设的统计分析结果，在很大程度上支持了如下观点：一系列国际层面因素会显著影响第三方行为体设立或不设立第三方维和任务的决策；国际层面因素较国家层面因素更为关键；且这些因素往往对不同类型第三方维和任务的设立概率产生差异化影响。