Opium for development: Marxist analysis of foreign direct investment in the Open Balkan

The outcome variables used in this study represent indicators of economic dependency developed by Marxist scholars, in particular investment dependency, the penetration by foreign capital, debt dependence, and dependence on foreign credit. These indicators are complemented with indicators of trade and external balance as well as with indicators of labour force exploitation in line with the preceding discussion. The key explanatory variable uses two metrics for FDI: as FDI net flows and as FDI stocks, both expressed as a share of GDP. It is assumed that FDIs produce no impact on, or are negatively correlated with, the outcome indicators of dependency (contrary to what mainstream economics suggests the FDI outcome should be. This implies that for some variables the relationship may be positive: FDIs are expected to increase the FDI outflows, FDI share of GDI, and total debt service. In addition, we introduce a number of control variables to control for extraneous factors that could otherwise distort the relationship between the explanatory variable and the outcome variables. These include the volume of trade to control for trade openness, total unemployment to control for the reserve army of labour, and good governance measured by control of corruption.
In addition, the study uses one dummy control variable, the EU economic cycle measured in the change of GDP where 1 indicates recession or decelerating growth (0 otherwise). The cycle variable is introduced to control for the variation in capital inflows. It is hypothesised that economic downturns in the centre may affect the indicators of dependency by creating incentives for more value extraction to compensate for the declining rate of profit in the centre.
To sum up, it is expected that the explanatory variables are either uncorrelated or negatively correlated with the outcome variables, except for control of corruption, which according to conventional theory, should improve the development outcomes and, by definition, mitigate the negative consequences of dependency. Findings show that FDI facilitates value transfer and capital disaccumulation in these countries through increasing external budget deficits, capital outflows, and crowding out domestic investment. Specifically, a 1% increase in FDI inflows correlates with a 0.30% GDP decrease in the external balance, a 0.13% GDP increase in FDI outflows, and a 3.75% reduction in domestic investment's share of total gross domestic investment. The research supports the Marxist dependency theory, indicating that foreign financial flows to peripheral countries aim to extract and transfer economic surplus.

本研究所采用的因变量，为马克思主义学者构建的经济依附性指标，具体涵盖投资依附、外国资本渗透、债务依附以及对外债依赖四个维度。结合前文论述，本研究还补充了贸易与外部平衡指标，以及劳动力剥削相关指标，以完善上述指标体系。核心解释变量采用两类外商直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）衡量指标，即外商直接投资净流入与外商直接投资存量，二者均以国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product, GDP）占比形式呈现。本研究假设，外商直接投资对经济依附性因变量无显著影响，或与其呈负相关关系——这与主流经济学对外商直接投资作用的传统认知相悖。这意味着，部分变量间的关系可能呈正向：外商直接投资预计将推高对外直接投资流出额、国内总投资（Gross Domestic Investment, GDI）中的外商直接投资占比，以及偿债总额。此外，本研究引入多组控制变量，以控制那些可能扭曲解释变量与因变量间关联的外生干扰因素。这些控制变量包括：用以衡量贸易开放度的贸易规模、用以反映劳动后备军状况的总体失业率，以及以腐败控制维度衡量的治理质量。
此外，本研究引入一组虚拟控制变量：以GDP变动衡量的欧盟经济周期变量，其中赋值1代表经济衰退或增长放缓，赋值0则代表其他情形。设置该周期变量的目的，在于控制资本流入的波动情况。本研究提出假设：核心经济体的经济衰退，可能通过催生更强的价值榨取动机以弥补自身利润率下滑，进而影响外围国家的经济依附性指标。
综上，本研究预期：除腐败控制变量外，核心解释变量与因变量间要么无相关性，要么呈负相关关系。根据传统理论，腐败控制可改善发展成效，且从定义上能够缓解经济依附所带来的负面效应。研究结果表明，外商直接投资通过扩大外部预算赤字、加剧资本外流以及挤出国内投资，推动了样本国家的价值转移与资本耗减。具体而言，外商直接投资流入量每提升1%，将对应外部平衡占GDP比重下降0.30%、对外直接投资流出额占GDP比重上升0.13%，以及国内总投资中本国投资占比下降3.75%。本研究验证了马克思主义依附理论，即流向外围国家的外国金融流动，其本质在于榨取并转移经济剩余。