R scripts and data to create the figures for the Gordon (2014) backcasting paper in Biological Conservation

R scripts and data to create the figures for the publication: <br>Gordon A. (2014) Implementing backcasting for conservation: determining multiple policy pathways for retaining future targets of endangered woodlands in Sydney, Australia Biological Conservation. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2014.10.025<br>Article abstract: Developing conservation policy is a challenging process, often impeded by a lack of clear objectives and a limited understanding of the pathways to achieve them. Here, the utility of target-based ‘backcasting’ is demonstrated for developing effective conservation policies. Backcasting encodes social values by requiring a desired future state be selected as a target; it then involves searching for multiple pathways to reach this state from the present. This approach is demonstrated with a case study examining policy options for mitigating impacts from the growth of Sydney on a critically endangered woodland community. A model was developed to predict changes in woodland area over time in response to a range of processes: declines in habitat condition; legal and illegal clearing for development; and the implementation of biodiversity offsets to compensate for clearing. Using a target of retaining 60% of the current woodland distribution in 50 years time, the backcasting analysis involved searching for all combinations of processes that would achieve this target. Results demonstrate how backcasting provides a structured way to explore the trade-offs and robustness of combinations of policy interventions leading to a desirable future. For this case study, the most viable way of achieving the target may be to ensure the offset policy is adequate and enforced. If this was not feasible, the analysis shows that reducing the rate at which habitat is declining in condition would be most important in opening up other policy options. This study provides the first quantitative demonstration of backcasting in a conservation context.

本数据集包含用于复现下述学术论文图表的R脚本与配套数据：<br>Gordon A. (2014) 《面向保护的回溯规划实施：确定澳大利亚悉尼濒危林地留存目标的多元政策路径》，《生物保护（Biological Conservation）》，doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2014.10.025<br><br>论文摘要：制定保护政策是一项极具挑战性的工作，常因缺乏明确目标、对达成目标的实施路径认知不足而受阻。本文论证了基于目标的回溯规划（backcasting）方法在制定高效保护政策中的应用价值。回溯规划通过选定期望的未来状态作为目标，以此锚定社会价值，随后从当前时点出发，探寻达成该目标的多元实施路径。本研究以悉尼城市扩张对极度濒危林地群落造成的影响为案例，探讨相应的政策选项以缓解其带来的影响。研究人员构建了模型，用于预测林地面积随时间的变化，该变化响应于一系列过程：生境质量退化、用于开发建设的合法与非法砍伐、以及为弥补砍伐而实施的生物多样性补偿（biodiversity offsets）。本研究以"50年内保留当前林地分布范围的60%"为目标，通过回溯规划分析，搜寻所有可达成该目标的过程组合。研究结果表明，回溯规划可通过结构化方式，探索能实现理想未来的政策干预组合的权衡关系与稳健性。针对本案例，达成目标的最可行路径是确保补偿政策充分且得到严格执行。若该路径不可行，分析显示降低生境质量的退化速率，将是拓展其他政策选项的关键举措。本研究首次在保护领域实现了回溯规划的定量论证。