National Innovation Empowerment and Carbon Emission Reduction: Heterogeneity in complex economical contexts

Abstract: The determinants that affect carbon dioxide emission reduction have been widely studied. With the innovative development of science and technology, more and more scholars are paying attention to the impact of innovation on CO2 emission reduction in countries. Scholars often have conflicting results based on research in specific fields or specific regions, however, how does national overall innovation capability directly or indirectly affect CO2 emission reduction still needs further empirical verification. Based on the panel data of 145 countries from 1996 to 2014, using the fixed effects model and the PVAR model, the authors find out that the national innovation capacity has a significantly laggard effect on CO2 emissions, and the marginal benefits of innovation increase in countries with a high level of innovative capacity. In addition, the quality of national regulation has an enhanced effect on the relationship between innovation and CO2 emission reduction, which has been verified by both fixed effects model and PVAR model. Email: [e-mail]

摘要：二氧化碳减排的决定因素已得到广泛研究。随着科学技术的创新发展，越来越多学者开始关注各国创新对二氧化碳减排的影响。然而，现有基于特定领域或特定区域的研究往往得出相互矛盾的结论，而国家整体创新能力如何直接或间接影响二氧化碳减排，仍有待进一步的实证检验。本文基于1996年至2014年145个国家的面板数据，采用固定效应模型（fixed effects model）与面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型展开实证分析，结果表明：国家创新能力对二氧化碳排放具有显著的滞后效应，且在创新能力水平较高的国家中，创新的边际收益会随之提升。此外，国家监管质量对创新与二氧化碳减排之间的关系具有正向调节作用，该结论已通过固定效应模型与PVAR模型得到验证。电子邮箱：[e-mail]