Replication Data for: Unresponsive and Unpersuaded: The Unintended Effects of Voter Persuasion Efforts

Can randomized experiments at the individual level help assess the persuasive effects of campaign tactics? To answer that question, we analyze a field experiment conducted during the 2008 presidential election in which 56,000 registered voters in Wisconsin were assigned to persuasive canvassing, phone calls, and/or mail. We find that persuasive appeals by canvassers had two unintended consequences. First, they reduced responsiveness to a follow-up survey among infrequent voters, a substantively interesting behavioral response that has implications for the statistical analysis of persuasion experiments. Second, the persuasive appeals possibly reduced candidate support and certainly did not increase it. This counter-intuitive finding is reinforced by multiple statistical methods and suggests that contact by a political campaign can engender a backlash.

个体层面的随机实验能否助力评估竞选策略的说服效果？为解答这一问题，我们分析了2008年美国总统大选期间开展的一项田野实验：威斯康星州的5.6万名登记选民被随机分配至说服性挨户游说、电话沟通及/或邮寄宣传材料组别。研究发现，游说者的说服性诉求存在两项非预期后果：其一，该举措降低了低投票率选民对后续调查的应答率，这一具有实质研究价值的行为反应，对说服实验的统计分析具有重要启示；其二，说服性诉求可能削弱了选民对候选人的支持度，且显然未起到提升支持度的效果。这一反直觉的研究结论经多种统计方法验证后得到强化，同时表明政治竞选活动的接触行为可能引发选民的抵触反弹。