Climate policy costs of spatially unbalanced growth in electricity demand: the case of datacentres in Ireland

We investigate the power system and climate policy implications of the anticipated expansion in electricity demand from datacentres. We perform a joint optimization of Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning for the island of Ireland considering uncertainty in future datacentre growth under various climate policies. Datacentre expansion imposes significant extra costs on the power system. A renewable energy target is more costly than a technology-neutral carbon reduction policy due to the restriction to invest solely in renewable energy, and the divergence in costs increases non-linearly in electricity demand. A carbon reduction policy is more robust to uncertainties in projected demand than a renewable policy. The increased demand from datacentres, which is relatively constant, is best matched by a power supply with constant output, generally fossil-fuelled power plants, potentially in combination with carbon capture and sequestration technology, than variable supply. Datacentre demand increases power system costs by 6% under a carbon reduction policy, and by 9% to 15% under renewable energy targets. However, the abatement cost of carbon under renewable targets decreases at higher levels of demand, while the opposite is true for the abatement cost under technology-neutral targets. High renewable targets crowd out other low-carbon options, namely CCS, leading to a higher cost solution for the same reduction in emissions, although this result is sensitive to increases in fossil fuel prices. The results suggest that climate-related energy policy should focus on technology-neutral carbon reduction policies. The climate impacts of datacentres on energy demand and thus supply requirements should also feature in climate and energy policy discussions. Climate policy that focuses on renewable energy only is more expensive than a technology-neutral climate policyThe costs of a renewable-only focused climate policy increase non-linearly as demand increases Climate policy that focuses on renewable energy only is more expensive than a technology-neutral climate policy The costs of a renewable-only focused climate policy increase non-linearly as demand increases本研究探讨数据中心（datacentre）电力需求预期增长对电力系统及气候政策的影响。针对爱尔兰岛，本研究在多种气候政策框架下考虑未来数据中心增长的不确定性，开展发电与输电扩建规划（Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning）的联合优化。数据中心扩建会给电力系统带来显著的额外成本。由于仅允许投资可再生能源的限制，可再生能源目标政策的成本高于技术中性碳减排政策，且两者的成本差距随电力需求增长呈非线性扩大。相较于可再生能源政策，碳减排政策对需求预测的不确定性具有更强的鲁棒性。相对稳定的数据中心新增电力需求，与恒定出力的电源（通常为化石燃料发电厂，可结合碳捕集与封存（CCS）技术）适配性优于波动性电源。在碳减排政策框架下，数据中心需求将使电力系统成本提升6%；在可再生能源目标政策下，成本提升幅度为9%至15%。然而，可再生能源目标下的碳减排成本随需求水平提升而下降，而技术中性政策下的碳减排成本则呈现相反趋势。高可再生能源目标会挤出其他低碳选项，即碳捕集与封存（CCS）技术，导致在实现同等减排量的情况下成本更高，不过该结论会随化石燃料价格上涨发生变化。研究结果表明，气候相关能源政策应聚焦于技术中性碳减排政策。数据中心对能源需求及由此产生的供电需求带来的气候影响，也应纳入气候与能源政策的讨论范畴。仅聚焦可再生能源的气候政策成本高于技术中性气候政策，且此类政策的成本随需求增长呈非线性扩大。