fdata-02-00020-g0003_Data Mining Climate Variability as an Indicator of U.S. Natural Gas.tif

Anomalously cold winters with extreme storms strain natural gas (NG) markets due to heightened demand for heating and electricity generation. While extended weather forecasting has become an indicator for NG management, seasonal (2–3 month) prediction could mitigate the impact of extreme winters on the NG market for consumers and industry. Interrelated climate patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation anomalies exhibit characteristics useful for developing effective seasonal outlooks of NG storage and consumption due to their influence on the persistence and intensity of extreme winter weather in North America. This study explores the connection between the Pacific-North American climate systems and the NG market in the U.S., connecting macro-scale oceanic and atmospheric processes to regional NG storage and consumption. Western Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure patterns describe significant variation in seasonal NG storage and consumption. Prediction of these coupled climate processes is useful for estimating NG storage and consumption; this could facilitate economic adaptation toward extreme winter weather conditions. Understanding the implicated impact of climate variability on NG is a crucial step toward economic adaptation to climate change.

异常寒冷且伴随极端风暴的冬季，因供暖与发电需求大幅攀升，给天然气（natural gas, NG）市场造成沉重压力。尽管延伸期天气预报（extended weather forecasting）已成为天然气管理的重要参考，季节尺度（2-3个月时效）的预报仍可缓解极端冬季对消费者与工业领域天然气市场的冲击。海洋与大气环流异常的耦合气候模态，因其对北美极端冬季天气的持续性与强度存在显著影响，其特征可用于构建有效的天然气存储与消费季节展望。本研究探讨了太平洋-北美气候系统（Pacific-North American climate systems）与美国天然气市场的关联，将大尺度海洋与大气过程与区域天然气存储及消费状况相挂钩。西太平洋海表温度（sea surface temperatures）与大气压力场分布，可解释季节尺度下天然气存储与消费的显著变化。对这些耦合气候过程（coupled climate processes）的预报，可用于估算天然气存储与消费量，从而助力针对极端冬季天气的经济适配工作。厘清气候变率对天然气市场的潜在影响，是实现气候变化经济适配的关键一步。