The role of energy diversification in the average income and pollution intensity of OECD economies

We investigate the nexus between economy (per-capita income), ecology (pollution intensity), and energy (mix diversification). The research problem arises from the lack of studies incorporating energy mix diversification into the energy – growth nexus and energy – environment nexus. We construct a concentration – diversification index of energy sources satisfying the cardinality property and apply it to 32 OECD countries over 1970–2017. Annual country-level panels are analyzed through dynamic semi-log specifications with fixed effects and instrumental variables to address endogeneity. Results indicate that greater diversification of the energy mix is associated with reductions in pollution intensity (≈2.6% short run and ≈9.6% long run per unit decrease in the index), while also supporting higher per-capita income (≈1.3% and ≈5.7%). Robustness checks, including alternative unit-root and cointegration diagnostics and controls for cross-sectional dependence, confirm the findings. From a policy perspective, promoting diversified energy portfolios aligns with simultaneous improvements in economic performance and environmental quality.

本研究探讨了经济维度（人均收入）、生态维度（污染强度）与能源维度（能源结构多元化（energy mix diversification））三者间的关联关系。本研究的问题缘起于现有研究尚未将能源结构多元化纳入能源-增长关联、能源-环境关联的分析范畴。我们构建了满足基数属性的能源集中度-多元化指数，并将其应用于1970-2017年间32个经合组织（OECD）国家的面板数据。针对年度国家层面面板数据，我们采用带有固定效应与工具变量的动态半对数设定开展分析，以解决内生性问题。研究结果显示，能源结构多元化程度的提升与污染强度的下降显著相关：该指数每下降1单位，短期污染强度约降低2.6%，长期约降低9.6%；同时，能源结构多元化也能推动人均收入提升，短期增幅约为1.3%，长期约为5.7%。我们通过替换单位根与协整检验方法、控制截面相关性等方式开展稳健性检验，结果均验证了上述研究结论。从政策视角来看，推动多元化能源结构的发展，能够同时实现经济绩效与环境质量的双重改善。