The burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in Portuguese Language Countries

Abstract The present study analyzed trends in premature mortality from Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) between 1990 and 2019, the projections up to 2030, and the risk factors (RFs) attributable to these diseases in the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP). Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and the analysis of the burden of premature mortality due to NCDs were used for nine CPLP countries, applying age-standardized rates, using RStudio. Portugal, Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, and Guinea Bissau showed declining premature mortality rates caused by NCDs, while East Timor, Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Mozambique showed an increase in rates. Projections indicate that none of the countries is expected to achieve the goals of reducing premature mortality due to NCDs by one third by 2030. The attributable burden of disease showed that the most important RFs in 2019 were: high systolic blood pressure (SBP), tobacco, dietary risks, high body mass index (BMI), and air pollution. It can therefore be concluded that there are profound differences in the burden of NCDs among the countries, with better results in Portugal and Brazil, and that no CPLP country is likely to reach the NCD reduction target by 2030.

摘要 本研究分析了1990至2019年葡萄牙语国家共同体（Community of Portuguese Language Countries, CPLP）范围内非传染性疾病（Noncommunicable Diseases, NCDs）的过早死亡趋势、截至2030年的预测情况，以及此类疾病可归因的危险因素（Risk Factors, RFs）。本研究采用全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease, GBD）研究的估算数据，通过RStudio工具计算年龄标化率，对9个CPLP成员国的非传染性疾病过早死亡负担展开分析。结果显示，葡萄牙、巴西、赤道几内亚、安哥拉及几内亚比绍的非传染性疾病相关过早死亡率呈下降趋势，而东帝汶、佛得角、圣多美和普林西比以及莫桑比克的该类死亡率则有所上升。预测结果表明，所有成员国均无法在2030年前实现将非传染性疾病过早死亡率降低三分之一的既定目标。可归因疾病负担分析显示，2019年最主要的可归因危险因素依次为：高收缩压（systolic blood pressure, SBP）、烟草、膳食风险因素、高体质量指数（body mass index, BMI）以及空气污染。综上可见，各成员国间的非传染性疾病负担存在显著差异，葡萄牙与巴西的相关防控成效更为显著，且尚无任何一个CPLP成员国有望在2030年前达成非传染性疾病过早死亡率降低的目标。