Replication data for: The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions

Early studies of business cycles argued that contractions in economic activity were briefer (shorter) and more violent (rapid) than expansions. This paper systematically investigates this claim and in the process discovers a robust new business cycle fact: expansions and contractions in output are equally brief and violent but contractions in employment are briefer and more violent than expansions. The difference arises because employment typically lags output around peaks but both series roughly coincide in their troughs. We discuss the performance of existing business cycle models in accounting for this fact, and conclude that none can fully account for it. We then show that a simple model that combines three familiar ingredients--labor hoarding, a choice of when to scrap old technologies, and job training or job search--can account for the business cycle fact.

早期的商业周期研究指出，经济活动中的收缩比扩张更短暂（持续时间更短）且更剧烈（变化速度更快）。本文系统地验证了这一观点，并在此过程中发现了一个稳健的商业周期新事实：产出的扩张与收缩在短暂性和剧烈性上相当，但就业的收缩比扩张更短暂且更剧烈。这种差异的产生是因为就业在峰值附近通常滞后于产出，但两者在谷底时大致同步。我们探讨了现有商业周期模型对这一事实的解释能力，结论是没有任何模型能够完全解释该事实。随后我们证明，一个融合了三个常见要素——劳动窖藏（labor hoarding）、淘汰旧技术的时机选择以及职业培训或求职——的简单模型能够解释这一商业周期事实。