How to Decide Whether to Move Species Threatened by Climate Change

Introducing species to areas outside their historical range to secure their future under climate change is a controversial strategy for preventing extinction. While the debate over the wisdom of this strategy continues, such introductions are already taking place. Previous frameworks for analysing the decision to introduce have lacked a quantifiable management objective and mathematically rigorous problem formulation. Here we develop the first rigorous quantitative framework for deciding whether or not a particular introduction should go ahead, which species to prioritize for introduction, and where and how to introduce them. It can also be used to compare introduction with alternative management actions, and to prioritise questions for future research. We apply the framework to a case study of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) in New Zealand. While simple and accessible, this framework can accommodate uncertainty in predictions and values. It provides essential support for the existing IUCN guidelines by presenting a quantitative process for better decision-making about conservation introductions.

在气候变化背景下，为保障物种存续而将其引入历史分布范围以外的区域，是一项颇具争议的濒危物种保护策略。尽管关于该策略合理性的争议仍在持续，但此类物种引入行动已实际开展。过往用于分析物种引入决策的框架，均缺乏可量化的管理目标与数学严谨的问题建模方式。本研究构建了首个严谨的量化分析框架，可用于判定特定物种引入行动是否应当实施、确定优先引入的物种，以及规划引入的地点与实施方式。该框架还可用于对比物种引入与其他保护管理手段的优劣，并为未来研究确定优先探讨的科学问题。我们以新西兰的喙头蜥（Sphenodon punctatus，俗称tuatara）为案例对象，对该框架进行了应用验证。尽管该框架简洁易懂，却能够兼容预测结果与价值判断中的不确定性。本框架通过构建量化决策流程以优化保护物种引入的相关决策制定，为现有IUCN（国际自然保护联盟）指南提供了关键支撑。