Consecutive Dry Days for Current Climate (1950-1999)

Model Run: Control - Current Climate (Observed/current climate as modelled by climate model). The Self-Organizing Map Downscaling (SOMD) was developed at the Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG)[1], University of Cape Town. This is a leading empirical downscaled technique and provides meteorological station level response to global climate change forcing (See Hewitson and Crane (2006) for methodological details and Wilby et al. (2004) for a review of this and other statistical downscaling methodologies). Downscaling of a General Circulation Model (GCM) is accomplished by deriving the normative local response from the atmospheric state on a given day, as defined from historical observed data. [1] http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/

模型运行：控制组——当前气候（经气候模型模拟的观测/当前气候）。自组织映射降尺度（Self-Organizing Map Downscaling，SOMD）由开普敦大学气候系统分析小组（Climate Systems Analysis Group，CSAG）[1]研发。该方法是当前主流的经验降尺度技术，可提供气象站点尺度对全球气候变化强迫的响应结果（相关方法学细节可参考Hewitson与Crane（2006）的研究，该类及其他统计降尺度方法的综述可参阅Wilby等人（2004）的成果）。通用环流模型（General Circulation Model，GCM）的降尺度处理，通过从历史观测数据定义的单日大气状态中推导标准化局地响应来完成。[1] http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/